NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	9.6 [83]		MVP	Jim Jackson (DAL): +28.2%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	4.2 [345]		LVP	Chris Gatling (DAL): -18.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.28	0.05	0.24	0.01	7	71%	0.47	1	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.06	0.21	0.00	8	62%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Oliver Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	61%	0.09	1	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Harper	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	75%	0.14	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
George McCloud	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.21,-0.09	0.20	-0.28	0.01	15	82%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.07
Samaki Walker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	9	15%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Gatling	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18	-0.05	-0.14	-0.00	15	51%	0.01	3	-0.19	5	80%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.02	0.25	0.00	11	59%	0.34	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.13	0.01	13	75%	0.27	1	-0.04	10	70%	-0.03
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.2	0.20	0.05	0.16	0.01	12	63%	0.23	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.05	-0.03	14	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	9	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	-0.09	0.03	8	50%	-0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	25.4	15.5	23.5	1.7	34.0	123.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +9.9%

DAL -11.5%

DAL -8.3%

SAS +61.4%

DAL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	15.7	15.6	116.7	115.2	104.4
season	15.9	16.8		99.1	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.7		109.4	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.1	13.3	19.0	15.8	16.0
SAS	15.9	15.5	13.7	17.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	39	41	0.47	-0.97	1.44	0.24	8	-9	17	15.7	16.2	-0.55	17.1	14.5	2.57
Eric Montross	33	36	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.00	5	-6	11	15.3	16.4	-1.02	16.5	15.2	1.31
Derek Harper	42	44	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-4	7	14.9	17.0	-2.10	15.5	15.8	-0.29
Samaki Walker	34	33	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	2	-5	16.9	15.4	1.41	15.2	15.9	-0.77
Jason Kidd	80	80	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.47	-3	2	-5	15.8	17.3	-1.49	15.8	14.7	1.06
Jim Jackson	58	60	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.50	-2	1	-3	17.0	14.1	2.92	15.6	15.8	-0.21
Chris Gatling	48	51	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.66	1	-2	3	14.9	17.3	-2.41	14.8	16.7	-1.86
George McCloud	59	61	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.53	-5	4	-9	16.6	14.8	1.79	15.4	16.3	-0.88
Oliver Miller	57	54	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.46	-9	8	-17	16.4	15.3	1.02	15.5	15.9	-0.47

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	50	47	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.62	3	-2	5	14.5	17.1	-2.66	16.9	15.0	1.92
Dominique Wilkins	61	60	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.37	10	-9	19	16.0	15.1	0.92	16.0	15.9	0.12
Avery Johnson	70	68	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.52	4	-3	7	15.5	16.2	-0.73	15.8	16.5	-0.63
Vinny Del Negro	53	53	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.54	2	-1	3	16.1	15.1	1.04	15.5	16.6	-1.09
Sean Elliott	66	67	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.54	1	0	1	15.7	15.5	0.24	16.5	14.5	1.96
Carl Herrera	7	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	3	-5	18.4	15.4	2.98	11.7	16.3	-4.62
Monty Williams	26	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	1	-1	15.5	15.7	-0.24	14.5	16.5	-1.96
Greg Anderson	7	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	5	-9	14.0	15.8	-1.81	12.4	16.3	-3.85
Vernon Maxwell	39	37	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.07	-1	2	-3	15.1	16.1	-1.04	16.6	15.5	1.09
Cory Alexander	22	22	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.05	-3	4	-7	16.2	15.5	0.73	16.5	15.8	0.63
Will Perdue	59	59	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.12	-5	6	-11	16.3	14.6	1.62	16.1	15.7	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.23,0.45,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 88, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.21,0.33,0.42,1	92.4%
ATL 99, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.55,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.43,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.58,1	91.5%
UTA 98, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.4,0.26,0.26,0.45,0.27,1	91.3%