NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	7.9 [250]		MVP	Steven Smith (ATL): +29.1%
Atlanta Hawks	89		Comeback	3.7 [350]		LVP	Tom Hammonds (DEN): -19.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brooks Thompson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	11	64%	0.11	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Dale Ellis	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	15	64%	0.13	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	45%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.07	-0.08	0.01	0.00	22	41%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Mark Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	11	37%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	11	21%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.2,-0.2	-0.04	-0.16	-0.00	7	44%	-0.04	1	-0.16	4	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.13,0.29	0.29	-0.07	0.35	-0.00	19	43%	0.31	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.03
Willie Burton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	13	59%	0.06	2	-0.06	11	91%	0.05
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.01	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.08	-0.01	14	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.04
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ivano Newbill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ken Norman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.7	24.2	16.8	29.2	2.4	29.8	126.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +43.7%

ATL +20.2%

DEN -21.6%

ATL +3.5%

ATL +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ATL	NBA	DEN	ATL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.7	15.6	100.0	102.3	104.4
season	15.2	16.4		102.3	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.3		100.3	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	16.9	16.6	19.6	17.2
ATL	15.3	16.6	15.4	15.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	15	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-2	3	18.2	17.0	1.23	15.1	15.9	-0.81
Jeff McInnis	9	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	1	-3	19.9	16.9	3.02	15.4	15.8	-0.31
Brooks Thompson	48	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.52	15	-16	31	15.9	18.7	-2.74	16.4	14.9	1.52
Antonio McDyess	40	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.48	9	-10	19	16.4	17.9	-1.48	17.2	14.4	2.83
Dale Ellis	72	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	13	-27	18.4	11.7	6.72	14.7	20.4	-5.78
Tom Hammonds	68	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-3	5	16.4	19.8	-3.39	15.7	15.8	-0.05
Mark Jackson	79	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.47	1	-2	3	16.9	19.9	-3.02	15.8	15.4	0.31
Bryant Stith	40	38	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	15	-31	18.7	15.9	2.74	14.9	16.4	-1.52
LaPhonso Ellis	69	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	0	-1	16.9	18.2	-1.24	16.1	14.4	1.65

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	64	64	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.32	15	-14	29	14.6	18.8	-4.16	18.4	13.9	4.49
Tyrone Corbin	72	73	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.40	9	-8	17	14.7	20.7	-6.05	17.0	18.0	-0.99
Mookie Blaylock	71	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.40	8	-7	15	14.6	20.6	-5.93	16.9	18.4	-1.52
Eldridge Recasner	34	35	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.32	1	0	1	16.4	15.3	1.13	16.1	17.9	-1.77
Steven Smith	70	70	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.49	-7	8	-15	16.3	13.5	2.80	18.0	13.9	4.07
Ivano Newbill	19	22	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	-5	11	13.8	16.2	-2.41	14.1	18.2	-4.06
Dikembe Mutombo	67	66	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.22	-5	6	-11	16.5	13.1	3.34	18.2	14.1	4.06
Ken Norman	9	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.03	-6	7	-13	21.6	15.1	6.50	15.8	17.3	-1.56
Willie Burton	29	30	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.19	-16	17	-33	18.9	14.1	4.81	15.4	18.1	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 112, DET 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.62,0.77,0.45,0.42,1	92.8%
PHI 95, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.72,0.33,0.59,1	91.4%
PHX 83, LAL 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.84,1	91.3%