NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	101		Excitement	6.3 [513]		MVP	Michael Smith (SAC): +10.8%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	1.9 [405]		LVP	Billy Owens (SAC): -24.1%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	93%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	91%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Hot Rod Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	53%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Wesley Person	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	59%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Rex Chapman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	3	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.00
Danny Manning	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	14	58%	0.10	5	-0.11	5	20%	-0.06
Mark Bryant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	70%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
A.C. Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	8	43%	0.01	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.01
Kevin Johnson	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.03	9	42%	-0.06	6	-0.10	6	67%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	0.00	10	64%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	12	46%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	10	64%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Duane Causwell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	10	54%	0.10	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lionel Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	5	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.06	0.03	18	51%	-0.01	5	-0.17	7	71%	-0.01
Billy Owens	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.13	-0.09	0.02	12	50%	-0.10	7	-0.14	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.7	31.0	16.8	24.2	2.6	43.0	145.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +34.7%

PHX +12.9%

SAC -2.7%

SAC -1.7%

PHX +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	SAC	NBA	PHX	SAC	NBA
this game	14.4	15.3	15.6	104.1	97.9	104.4
season	14.6	15.4		106.8	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.6		106.0	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.5	11.8	17.0	14.7	14.4
SAC	14.9	15.9	16.5	14.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	57	58	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.33	18	-12	30	13.2	16.0	-2.75	15.4	15.2	0.25
Rex Chapman	46	47	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-6	18	12.5	16.0	-3.54	14.7	15.9	-1.26
Robert Horry	40	42	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-5	16	13.6	14.9	-1.21	15.2	15.5	-0.29
Mark Bryant	33	31	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	-2	10	14.0	14.5	-0.55	16.3	14.9	1.46
Sam Cassell	32	31	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.17	4	2	2	12.8	15.1	-2.26	14.5	15.7	-1.15
Hot Rod Williams	59	61	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.15	0	6	-6	15.5	12.6	2.89	15.4	15.2	0.17
Kevin Johnson	75	74	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.24	-4	10	-14	14.5	13.8	0.76	15.1	16.1	-1.05
Wesley Person	57	56	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	7	-8	15.0	13.4	1.55	15.9	14.6	1.25
Michael Finley	46	46	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.09	-6	12	-18	15.6	13.2	2.41	15.7	15.0	0.65
A.C. Green	40	39	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.00	-12	18	-30	16.0	13.2	2.75	15.2	15.4	-0.25

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	40	41	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-9	12	16.5	14.5	1.95	17.0	12.5	4.49
Duane Causwell	5	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-1	-4	17.4	15.2	2.18	13.0	14.5	-1.45
Lionel Simmons	22	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-2	-2	16.4	15.0	1.40	13.8	14.5	-0.76
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	45	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.06	-6	0	-6	15.1	15.5	-0.37	13.7	14.9	-1.20
Michael Smith	55	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	15.1	15.7	-0.64	14.5	14.1	0.40
Tyus Edney	52	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-2	-2	14.9	15.8	-0.96	12.9	16.0	-3.16
Billy Owens	86	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-4	2	15.2	16.4	-1.17	14.8	10.6	4.20
Mitch Richmond	95	94	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-4	2	15.3	18.5	-3.24	14.4	13.7	0.72
Olden Polynice	85	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.27	-5	-1	-4	15.2	16.6	-1.43	14.0	16.6	-2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.14,0.08,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.1,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 96, SAS 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.08,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	92.5%
MIL 94, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.19,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.5%
LAC 114, SAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.26,0.12,0.09,0.03,0,0.02,0,0	91.9%