NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	8.4 [175]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): +28.8%
Denver Nuggets	103		Comeback	3.2 [288]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -27.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.17,0.29,0.29	0.08	0.20	-0.02	18	61%	0.29	0	0.00	13	62%	-0.02
Cherokee Parks	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.05	0.00	7	53%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Stojko Vrankovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,0	-0.01	0.02	0.01	4	71%	0.14	2	-0.14	9	89%	0.02
Doug West	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	9	48%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
James Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Heal	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.04	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Tom Gugliotta	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	15	63%	0.13	7	-0.17	8	75%	-0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.13	-0.16	-0.01	11	25%	-0.12	2	-0.16	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	8	70%	0.11	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.07	-0.02	9	39%	0.08	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	9	58%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Sarunas Marciulionis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	7	71%	0.06	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.02,-0.07,0.1,0.1,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	10	54%	0.04	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.13
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.17	0.00	24	55%	-0.03	3	-0.16	14	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	27.8	15.0	28.0	1.8	37.4	136.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +33.8%

DEN -8.4%

MIN +12.5%

MIN +9.4%

MIN +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	14.8	15.6	111.3	106.2	104.4
season	15.5	15.2		103.3	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.8	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.6	13.0	17.0	14.8	14.8
DEN	17.3	15.2	11.8	15.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mitchell	53	52	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.47	13	-8	21	14.6	15.2	-0.62	14.9	14.7	0.21
Stephon Marbury	62	61	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.45	6	-1	7	16.3	12.3	4.00	15.4	13.9	1.57
Kevin Garnett	73	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.32	7	-2	9	14.4	16.1	-1.70	14.6	15.8	-1.23
Doug West	71	70	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	7	-9	15.3	13.5	1.79	14.8	14.9	-0.06
Tom Gugliotta	76	76	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.34	-5	10	-15	14.5	16.1	-1.66	14.7	15.2	-0.50
Chris Carr	29	28	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.08	1	4	-3	14.3	15.1	-0.71	14.9	14.8	0.02
Cherokee Parks	40	39	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.11	6	-1	7	16.9	13.4	3.50	16.1	14.0	2.15
James Robinson	3	3	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	4	-3	0.7	15.3	-14.63	7.3	15.1	-7.75
Stojko Vrankovic	45	45	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	6	-7	14.1	15.5	-1.33	14.7	15.0	-0.33
Shane Heal	1	2	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	4	-3	18.0	14.8	3.19	6.0	15.0	-9.03
Terry Porter	32	33	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.10	-2	7	-9	13.4	15.6	-2.19	14.5	15.0	-0.59

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	10	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-3	1	10.6	15.3	-4.73	11.4	15.2	-3.84
Antonio McDyess	84	83	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.38	7	-12	19	14.7	15.5	-0.80	15.1	13.1	2.07
Bryant Stith	80	80	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.35	5	-10	15	14.8	15.1	-0.26	15.2	13.1	2.09
Brooks Thompson	65	64	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.34	3	-8	11	15.2	14.1	1.08	13.4	17.7	-4.28
Ervin Johnson	40	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	2	-9	15.1	14.7	0.39	14.3	15.2	-0.96
Jeff McInnis	35	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	4	-13	13.5	15.6	-2.04	16.2	14.0	2.23
Sarunas Marciulionis	17	17	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	5	-15	15.1	14.8	0.26	13.1	15.2	-2.09
Dale Ellis	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	15.5	11.9	3.63	15.4	12.6	2.74
Tom Hammonds	75	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.28	-9	4	-13	15.0	14.3	0.68	15.3	13.3	2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.29,0.15,0.17,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 114, ATL 112	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.19,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.46,0.53,0.79,0.78,0.55,0.26,0	91.6%
CHI 87, MIN 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.4,0.39,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.42,0.23,0.31,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.28,0	91.3%
BOS 95, SAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.46,0.68,0.28,0	90.8%