NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	86		Excitement	8.5 [173]		MVP	Horace Grant (ORL): +18.2%
Orlando Magic	90		Comeback	8.3 [194]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -48.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stojko Vrankovic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	10	40%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	5	62%	-0.01	1	-0.00	3	67%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	13	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.06
Dean Garrett	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tom Gugliotta	-0.26	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25	-0.07	-0.20	-0.02	14	53%	-0.12	4	-0.13	8	87%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	-0.49	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.49	-0.09	-0.43	-0.03	14	44%	-0.18	3	-0.31	4	50%	-0.13

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.18	0.18	-0.03	0.21	0.00	12	52%	0.22	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
David Vaughn	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	69%	0.07	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.04
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	6	50%	-0.00	3	-0.05	8	62%	-0.04
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	7	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	7	40%	-0.06	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	9	38%	-0.10	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	8	37%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.08,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.38,-0.38	-0.38	-0.07	-0.30	0.00	22	43%	-0.35	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	26.6	15.0	28.2	1.8	41.2	138.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -4.8%

ORL +1.4%

ORL +43.9%

ORL +10.9%

MIN -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	17.0	15.6	96.6	103.4	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		103.3	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.5	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.7	17.7	16.2	16.6	15.7
ORL	17.3	15.7	19.9	15.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Carr	19	18	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-5	6	14.9	16.0	-1.08	16.7	17.1	-0.42
James Robinson	12	12	0.03	-0.52	0.55	-0.00	1	-5	6	14.7	15.9	-1.15	17.2	17.0	0.19
Dean Garrett	21	19	-0.01	-0.48	0.47	0.14	-5	1	-6	14.5	16.1	-1.66	16.5	17.1	-0.67
Terry Porter	43	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.16	4	-8	12	16.0	15.5	0.41	17.4	16.6	0.83
Stojko Vrankovic	39	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.31	9	-13	22	15.3	16.1	-0.77	18.4	15.9	2.46
Sam Mitchell	55	53	-0.32	-0.17	-0.15	-0.14	-6	2	-8	16.0	15.4	0.58	16.1	18.4	-2.32
Kevin Garnett	75	73	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.51	3	-7	10	15.5	17.2	-1.75	17.3	15.6	1.70
Stephon Marbury	47	47	-0.44	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	4	-12	15.2	16.3	-1.12	16.6	17.4	-0.83
Doug West	57	57	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	2	-8	16.5	14.4	2.13	17.1	16.9	0.20
Tom Gugliotta	77	77	-0.68	0.19	-0.87	-0.30	-13	9	-22	16.4	11.4	5.00	16.8	18.5	-1.69

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	36	37	0.66	-0.17	0.83	0.40	9	-5	14	15.2	18.3	-3.08	14.5	16.6	-2.06
Horace Grant	78	78	0.62	-0.13	0.75	0.39	8	-4	12	16.8	19.0	-2.23	16.1	13.5	2.61
Derek Strong	46	47	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	-6	16	16.2	17.9	-1.66	15.9	15.5	0.37
Nick Anderson	71	73	0.54	-0.05	0.60	0.54	0	4	-4	16.9	17.5	-0.61	15.7	15.9	-0.16
Gerald Wilkins	63	64	0.34	0.15	0.19	0.28	2	2	0	17.3	16.1	1.27	15.5	16.4	-0.92
Dennis Scott	27	27	0.12	0.37	-0.25	-0.05	6	-2	8	16.4	17.3	-0.91	16.8	15.3	1.49
Rony Seikaly	51	55	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.01	-2	6	-8	18.3	15.2	3.13	15.6	16.0	-0.42
David Vaughn	12	11	-0.16	0.65	-0.81	0.08	-8	12	-20	16.2	17.1	-0.87	14.1	16.0	-1.88
Brian Shaw	51	53	-0.18	0.67	-0.84	-0.03	-5	9	-14	18.3	15.2	3.08	16.3	14.9	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.17,0.11,0.16,0.23,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.46,0.69,0.79,0.85,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, CHA 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.63,0.68,0.42,1	92.8%
ORL 104, ATL 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.36,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.28,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.41,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.42,1	90.8%
TOR 89, BOS 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.62,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.8,0.85,0.42,1	90.0%