NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	9.5 [86]		MVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): +23.8%
Boston Celtics	80		Comeback	6.8 [102]		LVP	Mark Jackson (DEN): -42.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.13	0.10	-0.01	28	62%	0.33	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.05
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.00	2	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.05
Jeff McInnis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Eric Murdock	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Marciulionis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	10	36%	0.02	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.02
Bryant Stith	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.14	0.01	11	36%	-0.20	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Mark Jackson	-0.42	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.36,-0.42	-0.18	-0.25	-0.01	13	27%	-0.24	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dino Radja	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.01	16	50%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pervis Ellison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Driggers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	5	56%	0.05	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.07	-0.01	12	59%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.06
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	17	47%	-0.05	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	13	37%	-0.12	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.36	-0.36	-0.16	-0.20	-0.00	11	29%	-0.24	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	22.5	15.5	27.0	1.7	41.1	132.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +8.7%

DEN +28.2%

DEN +67.2%

BOS -40.3%

BOS -13.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	15.7	15.0	15.6	88.2	84.2	104.4
season	15.2	14.8		102.3	101.8
opponent	14.7	15.3		109.5	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.2	15.0	16.3	17.6	15.7
BOS	13.5	15.7	15.0	16.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	79	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	-1	4	16.1	13.2	2.89	14.8	15.9	-1.13
Dale Ellis	93	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	15.7	0.0	15.67	15.0	0.0	14.98
Bryant Stith	66	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	0	2	16.6	13.3	3.29	14.7	15.7	-0.95
Ervin Johnson	45	48	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	1	0	16.1	15.3	0.82	16.0	14.0	1.98
Tom Hammonds	58	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	-2	6	16.5	14.3	2.17	14.2	16.4	-2.23
Antonio McDyess	63	62	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	3	-4	15.8	15.5	0.30	15.1	14.8	0.25
Darvin Ham	20	19	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	2	-2	12.0	16.7	-4.61	14.8	15.0	-0.24
Sarunas Marciulionis	27	25	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	2	-2	13.3	16.6	-3.29	15.7	14.7	0.95
Jeff McInnis	6	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	2	-2	13.5	15.8	-2.32	18.2	14.8	3.40
Eric Murdock	8	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	3	-4	13.0	15.9	-2.92	14.4	15.0	-0.59

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pervis Ellison	29	29	0.27	-0.77	1.03	-0.06	11	-13	24	14.7	15.1	-0.47	14.7	16.1	-1.37
Nate Driggers	6	6	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.03	2	-4	6	13.8	15.1	-1.22	19.2	15.4	3.74
Eric Williams	60	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.14	-8	6	-14	15.5	14.1	1.41	15.5	15.9	-0.36
Marty Conlon	33	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	0	-2	16.4	14.2	2.21	13.7	16.8	-3.14
David Wesley	92	89	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.44	6	-8	14	14.9	17.0	-2.09	15.7	15.0	0.70
Todd Day	54	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.66	10	-12	22	14.6	15.5	-0.94	14.8	16.7	-1.90
Dino Radja	79	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	1	-4	14.6	16.7	-2.13	16.4	12.0	4.43
Antoine Walker	70	68	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.38	-8	6	-14	14.6	16.2	-1.60	15.8	15.3	0.47
Rick Fox	52	52	-0.88	0.38	-1.27	-0.36	-18	16	-34	15.4	14.4	0.98	16.7	14.3	2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.31,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 98, VAN 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.48,0.57,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.42,0	92.2%
IND 97, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.43,0	90.5%
UTA 106, PHX 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.72,0	90.2%