NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	91		Excitement	8.1 [221]		MVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): +14.1%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	11.8 [108]		LVP	Mark Jackson (DEN): -44.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bimbo Coles	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	5	80%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	83%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Ray Owes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Felton Spencer	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Todd Fuller	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.13	0.00	-0.15	-0.02	21	57%	-0.04	3	-0.08	9	100%	0.05
Chris Mullin	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	9	40%	-0.09	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mark Price	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.09,-0.14	0.05	-0.19	0.00	10	73%	0.06	3	-0.21	2	50%	-0.00
Joe Smith	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.17,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	12	44%	0.10	7	-0.26	1	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.13,-0.07,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.04	0.18	-0.01	19	51%	0.26	3	-0.12	7	86%	0.08
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	10	73%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
LaSalle Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Marciulionis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	20	56%	0.04	5	-0.19	8	87%	0.02
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.21	-0.21	-0.07	-0.10	0.04	15	35%	-0.21	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.34,-0.41,-0.41,-0.44	-0.44	-0.25	-0.21	-0.01	6	19%	-0.20	7	-0.24	4	25%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	26.2	15.5	25.3	1.8	33.2	128.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +7.2%

GSW -2.3%

DEN +29.0%

DEN +10.3%

DEN +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	14.7	15.6	91.0	95.9	104.4
season	15.0	15.2		104.4	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.8	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	15.4	11.6	16.5	14.4
DEN	13.3	13.3	16.1	16.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
B.J. Armstrong	41	41	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.21	6	-9	15	16.7	12.8	3.94	15.9	13.8	2.14
Felton Spencer	38	35	0.33	-0.83	1.17	0.04	10	-13	23	14.9	14.1	0.78	14.8	14.6	0.23
Bimbo Coles	31	30	0.29	-0.79	1.08	0.05	8	-11	19	17.0	13.2	3.80	14.3	14.8	-0.50
Donyell Marshall	17	19	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.06	5	-8	13	16.6	14.0	2.70	14.7	14.7	0.07
Ray Owes	1	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-1	-1	19.0	14.4	4.64	0.0	14.8	-14.84
Todd Fuller	39	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	4	-11	13.1	15.3	-2.19	14.1	15.1	-1.01
Donald Royal	34	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.37	5	-8	13	13.6	14.8	-1.16	16.3	13.8	2.42
Latrell Sprewell	93	91	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-5	7	14.1	19.0	-4.94	14.7	14.7	-0.03
Mark Price	59	57	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.62	-9	6	-15	12.8	16.7	-3.94	13.8	15.9	-2.14
Chris Mullin	76	75	-0.90	0.40	-1.30	-0.43	-16	13	-29	13.8	16.5	-2.70	14.8	14.2	0.61
Joe Smith	71	68	-0.96	0.46	-1.41	-0.46	-17	14	-31	14.6	13.8	0.82	14.4	15.4	-1.03

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	78	79	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.48	13	-10	23	14.0	17.2	-3.22	13.3	18.6	-5.27
Antonio McDyess	83	85	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.39	13	-10	23	14.5	15.5	-1.00	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Dale Ellis	83	84	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.37	13	-10	23	14.6	15.3	-0.69	13.8	17.6	-3.83
Mark Jackson	76	78	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.45	7	-4	11	14.1	16.7	-2.58	14.3	15.0	-0.70
Ervin Johnson	83	85	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.46	5	-2	7	15.4	10.7	4.74	14.4	14.4	0.01
Eric Murdock	22	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.04	-4	7	-11	16.7	14.1	2.58	15.0	14.3	0.70
Sarunas Marciulionis	17	17	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	11	-19	14.4	14.8	-0.40	16.6	14.0	2.70
LaSalle Thompson	13	14	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.06	-4	7	-11	11.2	15.2	-4.07	15.4	14.3	1.10
Tom Hammonds	15	15	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.02	-10	13	-23	15.5	14.5	1.00	14.7	14.4	0.30
Ricky Pierce	20	21	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.07	-10	13	-23	17.2	14.0	3.22	18.6	13.3	5.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 104, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.59,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.07,0.05,0.22,0.58,1	91.3%
DET 85, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.59,1	91.1%
ATL 104, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.58,1	90.5%