NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	117		Excitement	3.9 [4]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +26.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	112		Comeback	2.4 [26]		LVP	Donovan Mitchell (CLE): -15.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.09,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.27	0.10	0.18	0.01	35	52%	0.28	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.08
Ajay Mitchell	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.16	0.06	0.10	-0.00	16	53%	0.16	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Bennett Stirtz	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.06	0.00	4	112%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aday Mara	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	7	71%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.11	-0.07	0.00	7	86%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Micah Peavy	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	80%	0.10	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Josh Dix	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.06	-0.01	8	28%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jaylin Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared McCain	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	11	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Merrill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.27,0.22	0.22	0.01	0.21	-0.00	8	44%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	9	60%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Evan Mobley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.09	0.00	11	62%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Jarrett Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	10	54%	0.12	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.08
Tyrese Proctor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	10	61%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.06
Meleek Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.05	-0.01	16	53%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	36%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Craig Porter Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	17	45%	-0.08	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.2	27.5	15.3	26.4	3.2	41.2	142.3
league avg	26.9	1.3	30.1	12.9	30.9	1.6	33.3	137.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE -14.3%

OKC +13.7%

OKC +54.2%

CLE -4.4%

OKC +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	CLE	NBA	OKC	CLE	NBA
this game	15.4	13.7	14.1	119.4	112.0	110.5
season	14.5	13.9		109.4	114.3
opponent	14.1	14.6		112.0	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.8	15.0	17.8	16.4	15.4
CLE	13.4	15.0	13.5	13.1	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ajay Mitchell	88	89	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.36	8	-3	11	16.0	10.1	5.89	13.8	12.7	1.12
Bennett Stirtz	74	76	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-5	15	14.7	17.4	-2.63	13.9	13.2	0.62
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	98	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	15.4	0.0	15.39	13.7	0.0	13.72
Kenrich Williams	83	84	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	0	5	15.8	12.9	2.90	14.0	12.5	1.45
Isaiah Hartenstein	73	73	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.38	1	4	-3	15.7	14.6	1.11	14.1	12.7	1.39
Micah Peavy	60	61	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	6	-7	16.3	13.9	2.48	14.0	13.2	0.84
Jared McCain	86	88	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.41	-7	12	-19	15.3	15.7	-0.32	13.9	12.4	1.48
Josh Dix	57	58	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	4	-3	14.7	16.4	-1.72	14.3	12.9	1.49
Aday Mara	80	81	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	8	-11	16.2	11.6	4.63	14.3	11.2	3.10
Jaylin Williams	64	64	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.02	-7	12	-19	15.0	16.1	-1.16	14.4	12.6	1.82

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrese Proctor	71	68	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.03	11	-16	27	13.6	14.0	-0.39	15.7	14.7	0.99
Jarrett Allen	86	84	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.03	4	-9	13	14.2	10.9	3.25	15.2	16.3	-1.05
Craig Porter Jr.	15	14	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.12	-2	-3	1	16.3	13.3	3.00	16.5	15.2	1.30
Mario Hezonja	88	85	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-4	3	13.9	12.3	1.58	15.6	14.3	1.25
Thomas Bryant	10	10	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	4	-13	17.4	13.3	4.09	13.5	15.6	-2.10
Meleek Thomas	74	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	0	-5	14.5	11.5	3.00	15.5	15.0	0.46
Sam Merrill	100	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	13.7	0.0	13.72	15.4	0.0	15.39
Donovan Mitchell	100	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	13.7	0.0	13.72	15.4	0.0	15.39
James Harden	80	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	3	-11	14.0	12.4	1.59	15.7	14.1	1.63
Evan Mobley	80	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	3	-11	14.0	12.4	1.59	15.7	14.1	1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.18,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.38,0.44,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 92, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.39,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.48,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.64,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.16,0	90.7%
DAL 99, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.14,0.22,0.17,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.62,0.64,0.45,0.29,0	90.4%
CHI 92, PHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.6,0.46,0.71,0.67,0.28,0	90.1%