NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	130		Excitement	8.7 [151]		MVP	Donovan Mitchell (CLE): +41.6%
Washington Wizards	126		Comeback	32.1 [165]		LVP	Marvin Bagley III (WAS): -19.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0.42	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.42,0.46,0.42	0.28	0.19	0.05	31	71%	0.50	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.05
Jaylon Tyson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	5	81%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Evan Mobley	0.10	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.02	17	53%	0.10	0	0.00	9	78%	0.04
Lonzo Ball	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.02,0.08	-0.02	0.09	-0.00	6	36%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Craig Porter Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dean Wade	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
De'Andre Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	14	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Thomas Bryant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Garland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	0.03	17	44%	0.01	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamir Watkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	7	107%	0.22	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bub Carrington	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.16,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.06	0.02	20	61%	0.21	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Kyshawn George	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	10	68%	0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Will Riley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	78%	0.06	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Tristan Vukcevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	7	64%	0.07	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Justin Champagnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tre Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	21%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.06,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	0.11	-0.14	0.05	20	55%	-0.05	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.04
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.08,-0.19	-0.19	0.05	-0.23	0.01	10	68%	-0.06	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	0.0	34.8	0.0	32.1	0.0	36.7	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +25.0%

CLE +12.3%

WAS -18.0%

CLE +29.9%

CLE +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	WAS	NBA	CLE	WAS	NBA
this game	13.3	13.9	14.2	123.8	117.8	113.5
season	13.5	13.8		116.0	108.4
opponent	14.1	14.5		120.0	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	13.4	15.6	14.2	10.5	13.3
WAS	14.3	13.3	14.0	14.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonzo Ball	88	89	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-2	8	13.0	14.5	-1.43	13.7	14.9	-1.20
Dean Wade	105	106	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	13.3	0.0	13.28	14.0	4.0	9.98
Donovan Mitchell	105	107	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	13.3	0.0	13.28	13.9	0.0	13.89
Darius Garland	90	91	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.54	-9	13	-22	13.4	12.3	1.10	13.6	15.2	-1.60
Evan Mobley	94	95	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.48	-8	12	-20	13.4	12.4	1.02	14.0	13.1	0.91
Craig Porter Jr.	24	24	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.03	6	-2	8	14.0	13.1	0.94	13.0	14.1	-1.14
Thomas Bryant	40	42	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	8	-12	15.2	12.1	3.15	13.2	14.3	-1.15
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	55	58	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.00	-11	15	-26	14.7	11.8	2.89	13.7	14.1	-0.43
Jaylon Tyson	94	96	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	-0.18	-7	11	-18	13.5	11.3	2.24	14.2	11.2	3.02
De'Andre Hunter	85	87	-0.58	1.08	-1.65	-0.11	-16	20	-36	13.7	11.3	2.44	14.1	13.0	1.03

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Riley	75	74	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.01	8	-12	20	13.4	15.1	-1.76	14.2	11.1	3.05
Justin Champagnie	42	44	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.16	0	-4	4	14.4	13.6	0.85	12.5	13.9	-1.38
Tre Johnson	102	100	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.18	-2	-2	0	14.3	5.0	9.32	13.7	5.0	8.69
Jamir Watkins	102	100	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-2	0	14.3	5.0	9.32	13.7	5.0	8.69
CJ McCollum	100	99	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.48	8	-12	20	13.8	15.0	-1.19	13.4	12.0	1.35
Kyshawn George	97	97	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.51	8	-12	20	13.8	14.9	-1.12	13.4	12.0	1.38
Bub Carrington	95	94	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.50	7	-11	18	13.8	14.6	-0.78	13.3	13.3	0.00
Marvin Bagley III	86	84	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.50	7	-11	18	13.7	14.7	-0.97	13.6	11.9	1.77
Tristan Vukcevic	87	87	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.40	-8	4	-12	13.8	14.4	-0.63	12.9	14.9	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.84,0.82,0.71,0.58,0.79,0.6,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.57,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 112, PHX 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.67,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.16,0	90.5%
LAC 117, CHA 115	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.59,0.73,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.26,0	90.3%
SAC 91, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.45,0.42,0	89.9%