NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	132		Excitement	3.5 [326]		MVP	Keldon Johnson (SAS): +14.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	119		Comeback	1.6 [122]		LVP	Austin Reaves (LAL): -3.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keldon Johnson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.00	-0.02	9	68%	0.15	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.00
Stephon Castle	0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.18	0.01	0.05	14	81%	0.15	4	-0.02	9	78%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.01	-0.02	12	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Julian Champagnie	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.02	0.05	8	89%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
De'Aaron Fox	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.01	0.04	17	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Dylan Harper	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Lindy Waters III	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Devin Vassell	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	10	35%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.21	0.00	0.16	16	81%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	4	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Don?i?	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.00	0.05	24	56%	0.09	3	-0.04	14	71%	-0.02
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dalton Knecht	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bronny James	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adou Thiero	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	14	56%	0.04	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Austin Reaves	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	16	45%	0.01	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	0.0	35.5	0.0	31.4	0.0	31.1	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +25.0%

SAS +15.7%

SAS +7.0%

SAS +2.5%

LAL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	14.5	12.6	14.1	126.9	110.2	113.7
season	14.0	14.5		117.1	117.0
opponent	14.0	14.3		115.3	112.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.2	12.6	14.8	17.0	14.5
LAL	12.4	11.8	14.0	12.5	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Champagnie	104	108	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	0	13	14.5	0.0	14.53	12.6	0.0	12.64
De'Aaron Fox	102	105	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-1	15	14.4	23.0	-8.64	12.8	5.3	7.51
Kelly Olynyk	97	100	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.11	13	0	13	15.0	8.6	6.39	12.8	10.5	2.31
Keldon Johnson	91	95	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	2	9	14.5	15.0	-0.54	12.6	12.7	-0.06
Dylan Harper	91	95	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.09	12	1	11	14.8	12.8	2.01	12.7	12.1	0.64
Stephon Castle	59	61	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	2	9	13.8	15.4	-1.61	13.9	11.0	2.94
Harrison Barnes	91	93	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	9	-5	14.1	17.7	-3.62	13.1	9.9	3.14
Devin Vassell	84	85	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	9	-5	13.9	17.0	-3.12	13.1	11.1	1.97
Luke Kornet	86	87	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.19	1	12	-11	14.0	16.9	-2.85	13.0	11.0	1.98
Lindy Waters III	24	25	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.14	-4	17	-21	17.0	13.8	3.21	12.5	12.7	-0.21
Jordan McLaughlin	22	22	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.11	-3	16	-19	16.5	14.0	2.44	13.5	12.4	1.02

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dalton Knecht	25	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-17	21	12.5	12.7	-0.21	17.0	13.8	3.21
Bronny James	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.11	3	-16	19	13.5	12.4	1.02	16.5	14.0	2.44
Adou Thiero	25	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-17	21	12.5	12.7	-0.21	17.0	13.8	3.21
Jake LaRavia	53	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-11	9	13.1	12.2	0.89	15.1	14.0	1.06
Deandre Ayton	59	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	-3	-7	13.4	11.7	1.69	13.3	16.0	-2.72
Gabe Vincent	47	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	0	-13	14.6	11.1	3.46	13.4	15.5	-2.07
Austin Reaves	92	92	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-10	7	13.1	10.1	3.02	14.2	16.9	-2.70
Rui Hachimura	77	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.10	-6	-7	1	13.4	10.9	2.48	14.2	15.5	-1.28
Jaxson Hayes	75	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.05	-17	4	-21	12.6	12.7	-0.04	13.6	16.7	-3.15
LeBron James	105	102	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	1	-15	12.8	5.3	7.51	14.4	23.0	-8.64
Luka Don?i?	105	102	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	1	-15	12.8	5.3	7.51	14.4	23.0	-8.64
Marcus Smart	108	104	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	0	-13	12.6	0.0	12.64	14.5	0.0	14.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 113, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
UTA 120, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
POR 103, NYK 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%