NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	123		Excitement	3.1 [1093]		MVP	Isaiah Joe (OKC): +15.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	87		Comeback	1.1 [1221]		LVP	Jake LaRavia (LAL): -9.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Joe	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.00	0.02	9	100%	0.15	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.03	15	76%	0.13	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Jared McCain	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.01	0.06	8	83%	0.06	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ajay Mitchell	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	45%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luguentz Dort	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chet Holmgren	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	10	65%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Kenrich Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	7	14%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Topi?	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Branden Carlson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.06	4	80%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Barnhizer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	0.00	0.08	7	71%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rui Hachimura	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	65%	0.11	2	-0.03	3	0%	-0.01
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	59%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kobe Bufkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	56%	0.05	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	1	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03
Adou Thiero	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	4	56%	0.03	2	-0.03	10	50%	-0.02
Drew Timme	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	9	55%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.09	6	79%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Ma�on	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Bronny James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	9	22%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dalton Knecht	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	42%	-0.04	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	7	12%	-0.07	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.2	32.3	0.0	26.3	0.0	26.5	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.7	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +34.2%

OKC +8.3%

OKC +0.6%

OKC +5.8%

OKC +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	LAL	NBA	OKC	LAL	NBA
this game	13.9	15.8	14.2	128.1	88.8	113.6
season	13.8	14.6		116.8	115.8
opponent	14.1	14.7		114.0	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.1	13.3	15.4	12.8	13.9
LAL	17.0	16.0	14.6	15.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Joe	75	78	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.56	36	0	36	14.1	12.9	1.23	16.1	14.4	1.72
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	68	71	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.38	30	6	24	14.2	12.9	1.32	15.9	15.4	0.55
Cason Wallace	70	73	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.41	31	5	26	14.3	12.8	1.50	15.8	15.5	0.33
Luguentz Dort	62	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.36	28	8	20	13.9	13.8	0.11	15.9	15.5	0.36
Chet Holmgren	53	56	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.26	23	13	10	14.1	13.6	0.47	15.4	16.3	-0.91
Ajay Mitchell	51	53	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.18	20	16	4	14.1	13.6	0.54	15.6	16.0	-0.43
Jaylin Williams	55	57	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.54	26	10	16	14.2	13.5	0.70	16.3	15.0	1.27
Jared McCain	55	57	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.44	19	17	2	13.9	13.8	0.06	15.1	16.7	-1.66
Alex Caruso	33	33	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.02	3	33	-30	13.4	14.1	-0.72	15.3	16.0	-0.70
Aaron Wiggins	62	64	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.41	15	21	-6	13.8	13.9	-0.07	14.9	17.5	-2.61
Isaiah Hartenstein	34	34	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	36	-36	13.9	13.8	0.07	15.5	15.9	-0.41
Nikola Topi?	26	25	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	31	-26	12.8	14.3	-1.50	15.5	15.8	-0.33
Kenrich Williams	26	25	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	31	-26	12.8	14.3	-1.50	15.5	15.8	-0.33
Branden Carlson	26	25	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	31	-26	12.8	14.3	-1.50	15.5	15.8	-0.33
Brooks Barnhizer	26	25	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	31	-26	12.8	14.3	-1.50	15.5	15.8	-0.33

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dalton Knecht	41	41	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.13	-3	-33	30	15.0	16.4	-1.40	13.0	14.5	-1.51
Nick Smith Jr.	25	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-31	26	15.5	15.8	-0.33	12.8	14.3	-1.50
Chris Ma�on	25	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-31	26	15.5	15.8	-0.33	12.8	14.3	-1.50
Kobe Bufkin	81	79	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.47	-18	-18	0	15.4	17.5	-2.06	14.1	12.9	1.12
Maxi Kleber	57	54	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.30	-14	-22	8	15.3	16.4	-1.12	14.5	13.0	1.54
Jarred Vanderbilt	24	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	-29	22	17.2	15.3	1.91	14.1	13.8	0.29
Adou Thiero	78	75	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.52	-24	-12	-12	15.4	17.0	-1.55	13.7	14.3	-0.60
Luke Kennard	53	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.24	-19	-17	-2	15.2	16.4	-1.26	14.0	13.7	0.28
Jake LaRavia	54	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.15	-19	-17	-2	15.3	16.3	-1.04	14.3	13.4	0.92
Drew Timme	78	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.55	-33	-3	-30	15.8	15.4	0.40	13.8	14.1	-0.36
Deandre Ayton	53	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.15	-20	-16	-4	15.7	15.9	-0.23	14.4	13.2	1.23
Rui Hachimura	71	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.38	-30	-6	-24	15.9	15.4	0.55	14.2	12.9	1.32
Bronny James	98	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.56	-36	0	-36	15.8	0.0	15.77	13.9	0.0	13.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, LAC 71	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
POR 112, NOH 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.25,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
MIA 110, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.39,0.27,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%