NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	105		Excitement	8.4 [243]		MVP	Brandin Podziemski (GSW): +29.4%
Golden State Warriors	110		Comeback	2.6 [711]		LVP	Nique Clifford (SAC): -25.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.24,0.2,0.17	0.03	0.13	-0.00	13	57%	0.23	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dylan Cardwell	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.08	0.00	4	100%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daeqwon Plowden	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	7	79%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.05	0.10	0.01	14	43%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Maxime Raynaud	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	14	55%	0.08	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Malik Monk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Killian Hayes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.09	0.03	-0.10	0.02	13	60%	-0.02	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Nique Clifford	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.08	-0.17	0.01	14	37%	-0.21	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandin Podziemski	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.20	0.01	11	71%	0.34	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
De'Anthony Melton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.14	0.12	-0.01	12	72%	0.29	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	4	75%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.22,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	12	63%	0.20	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charles Bassey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	12	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	3	12%	-0.04	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Malevy Leons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Pat Spencer	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	16	41%	-0.10	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.3	28.3	14.2	31.0	0.4	31.8	130.5
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.7	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +37.7%

GSW +16.6%

GSW +3.2%

SAC -3.8%

SAC -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	GSW	NBA	SAC	GSW	NBA
this game	15.3	14.7	14.2	109.4	114.6	113.6
season	14.4	14.7		109.5	112.8
opponent	13.8	14.1		113.6	119.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.0	15.0	14.6	16.8	15.3
GSW	15.0	15.0	13.7	15.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Monk	32	33	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-2	-1	14.6	15.7	-1.11	15.6	14.2	1.39
Dylan Cardwell	76	77	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.28	4	-9	13	15.5	14.8	0.67	14.9	13.8	1.09
Devin Carter	46	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	6	-17	15.8	14.9	0.90	15.5	13.9	1.52
Nique Clifford	89	89	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	15.5	13.3	2.21	14.8	13.3	1.49
Daeqwon Plowden	63	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	11	-27	14.9	16.1	-1.20	14.9	14.2	0.71
Precious Achiuwa	86	86	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	15.8	11.6	4.17	14.8	13.4	1.41
Doug McDermott	96	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	15.3	0.0	15.33	14.7	0.0	14.67
Killian Hayes	96	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	15.3	0.0	15.33	14.7	0.0	14.67
Maxime Raynaud	77	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.29	-10	5	-15	16.0	12.5	3.50	15.1	12.9	2.23

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton II	81	84	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.27	17	-12	29	15.0	12.9	2.05	15.4	14.9	0.48
Brandin Podziemski	61	61	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.30	10	-5	15	15.9	12.5	3.43	16.2	13.8	2.46
Draymond Green	96	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	14.7	0.0	14.67	15.3	0.0	15.33
Stephen Curry	96	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	14.7	0.0	14.67	15.3	0.0	15.33
Charles Bassey	92	93	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	2	1	15.0	7.5	7.48	15.3	17.7	-2.41
Seth Curry	92	93	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	0	5	14.7	14.5	0.17	15.5	9.0	6.54
De'Anthony Melton	86	85	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	9	-13	15.0	11.5	3.53	15.3	15.9	-0.65
Pat Spencer	87	87	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	6	-7	15.0	11.8	3.19	15.3	15.4	-0.12
Malevy Leons	73	73	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.09	-7	12	-19	15.2	12.9	2.36	15.2	15.8	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.68,0.61,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.85,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 95, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.83,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.85,1	91.5%
NOH 91, MIL 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.64,0.69,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.46,0.78,0.72,1	91.3%
CHA 92, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.31,0.46,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.67,0.73,1	90.9%