NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

LA Clippers	112		Excitement	8.2 [251]		MVP	Victor Wembanyama (SAS): +56.4%
San Antonio Spurs	116		Comeback	48.8 [83]		LVP	Stephon Castle (SAS): -22.9%

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.32	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.32	0.04	0.28	-0.01	12	46%	0.32	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Kawhi Leonard	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.24,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	20	60%	0.22	2	-0.08	10	90%	0.08
Nicolas Batum	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Sanders	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	71%	0.06	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.03	0.02	6	79%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bennedict Mathurin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	12	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Brook Lopez	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.11,-0.11	0.13	-0.21	0.03	19	68%	0.11	2	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	5	40%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.32,0.56	0.56	0.12	0.48	0.04	21	61%	0.58	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Carter Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.15	0.00	2	125%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Vassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.08	-0.04	13	39%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.01	9	56%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dylan Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Lindy Waters III	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	18	53%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.18	-0.18	0.14	-0.23	0.08	10	80%	-0.13	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.19
Stephon Castle	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.23	-0.23	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	8	33%	-0.09	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.6	26.1	14.4	26.9	2.6	38.1	136.9
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.9%

LAC -54.8%

SAS +29.7%

SAS +18.4%

SAS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	SAS	NBA	LAC	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	14.3	14.2	113.1	118.4	113.7
season	14.9	13.8		115.1	117.9
opponent	14.5	14.4		109.4	113.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	14.3	12.4	16.6	16.3	14.9
SAS	13.2	16.4	12.8	15.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Sanders	69	68	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.14	4	-8	12	14.7	15.2	-0.52	14.1	14.9	-0.84
Jordan Miller	87	87	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-2	0	15.1	13.4	1.65	14.2	15.0	-0.77
Brook Lopez	91	91	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	4	-12	15.3	10.4	4.89	14.3	14.6	-0.27
Isaiah Jackson	61	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-1	-2	15.3	14.2	1.07	14.1	14.6	-0.53
Nicolas Batum	64	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.52	5	-9	14	15.0	14.6	0.46	14.6	13.8	0.71
Kris Dunn	82	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.48	3	-7	10	15.0	14.1	0.98	14.6	12.9	1.70
Bennedict Mathurin	99	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.9	0.0	14.87	14.3	0.0	14.32
Kawhi Leonard	77	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.48	-3	-1	-2	15.0	14.3	0.77	14.2	14.7	-0.45
Derrick Jones Jr.	94	94	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.36	-8	4	-12	14.9	14.0	0.91	14.4	13.0	1.37

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Wembanyama	67	68	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.47	7	-3	10	14.3	14.4	-0.06	14.9	14.7	0.23
Stephon Castle	76	76	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.44	8	-4	12	14.1	15.0	-0.94	15.4	13.2	2.15
Julian Champagnie	88	89	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.34	8	-4	12	14.5	13.1	1.35	15.0	13.8	1.19
De'Aaron Fox	85	86	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.51	-1	5	-6	14.5	13.2	1.25	14.7	15.8	-1.04
Carter Bryant	87	87	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.11	8	-4	12	14.5	12.7	1.79	15.4	11.0	4.40
Devin Vassell	66	66	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	0	4	13.8	15.3	-1.43	15.9	12.7	3.21
Keldon Johnson	86	88	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.03	0	4	-4	14.1	15.6	-1.44	15.1	12.6	2.51
Luke Kornet	90	91	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.05	0	4	-4	14.2	15.1	-0.88	15.0	12.9	2.17
Lindy Waters III	12	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	6	-8	14.5	14.3	0.21	14.2	15.0	-0.73
Dylan Harper	75	76	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.08	-11	15	-26	14.1	15.0	-0.89	14.4	16.3	-1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.2,0.32,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.76,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 104, CLE 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.32,0.4,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.72,0.61,0.79,0.77,0.72,1	91.5%
NOP 114, PHX 118	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.28,0.3,0.16,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.47,0.41,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.96,1	91.1%
WAS 117, GSW 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.69,0.96,0.95,1	90.3%