NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	99		Excitement	6.6 [431]		MVP	Rui Hachimura (LAL): +21.9%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	1.8 [542]		LVP	De'Anthony Melton (GSW): -23.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moses Moody	0.16	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.00	0.00	17	64%	0.16	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Gary Payton II	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	8	81%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gui Santos	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	12	54%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Pat Spencer	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	9	45%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brandin Podziemski	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	15	47%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Richard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	6	33%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
De'Anthony Melton	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.13	-0.08	0.03	10	25%	-0.15	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.07	0.01	10	90%	0.25	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.01	7	65%	0.16	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.05
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	6	81%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	7	71%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	67%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Austin Reaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	0.03	10	59%	0.03	5	-0.09	7	86%	-0.03
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	17	49%	0.08	7	-0.21	7	86%	0.02
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	0.4	30.5	14.4	29.6	2.5	37.9	138.9
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +36.4%

LAL +21.2%

LAL +13.6%

GSW -24.5%

LAL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	LAL	NBA	GSW	LAL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.2	14.2	99.0	107.1	113.4
season	14.7	14.5		113.0	115.9
opponent	14.1	13.7		114.5	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	15.0	16.0	13.6	14.9
LAL	14.3	13.8	13.3	15.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quinten Post	28	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-2	-2	15.8	14.5	1.27	14.6	14.0	0.61
Gary Payton II	84	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	0	-6	15.4	12.3	3.04	14.3	13.6	0.76
Will Richard	46	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	9	-24	16.2	13.7	2.50	13.6	14.7	-1.06
Draymond Green	80	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-1	-4	14.2	17.4	-3.22	14.4	13.1	1.29
Pat Spencer	66	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.10	-12	6	-18	15.7	13.2	2.52	13.8	14.9	-1.15
De'Anthony Melton	77	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.31	-6	0	-6	14.7	15.4	-0.68	14.6	12.9	1.66
Brandin Podziemski	100	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	14.9	0.0	14.87	14.2	0.0	14.17
Moses Moody	100	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	14.9	0.0	14.87	14.2	0.0	14.17
Al Horford	91	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.09	-14	8	-22	15.4	9.3	6.08	14.2	13.7	0.53
Gui Santos	82	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	2	-10	14.8	15.3	-0.57	14.6	12.3	2.37

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	98	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.2	0.0	14.17	14.9	0.0	14.87
Luke Kennard	98	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.2	0.0	14.17	14.9	0.0	14.87
Maxi Kleber	90	92	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.36	3	3	0	14.2	13.6	0.60	14.7	16.4	-1.64
Marcus Smart	80	82	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	5	-4	14.4	13.3	1.03	14.4	16.9	-2.46
Jarred Vanderbilt	70	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	-2	10	14.4	13.7	0.64	15.5	13.1	2.41
Austin Reaves	95	97	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	5	-4	14.2	12.3	1.90	14.9	15.3	-0.48
Jake LaRavia	71	75	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	7	-8	14.9	12.2	2.74	15.0	14.5	0.52
Rui Hachimura	78	81	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	9	-12	14.9	11.4	3.42	14.7	15.6	-0.94
Jaxson Hayes	46	48	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	7	-8	15.1	13.4	1.72	14.5	15.2	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.71,0.81,0.84,0.74,0.8,0.69,0.53,0.6,0.82,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 84, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.48,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.59,0.77,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	93.4%
POR 87, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.9,0.99,1,1	93.2%
NJN 81, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.86,0.89,0.96,1,1,1	93.1%