NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	109		Excitement	9.7 [31]		MVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): +44.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	114		Comeback	4.9 [128]		LVP	Cole Anthony (ORL): -15.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moritz Wagner	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	0.00	6	108%	0.16	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.01	26	55%	0.26	4	-0.16	6	83%	0.03
Jett Howard	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	7	59%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.01	5	57%	0.09	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.06
Caleb Houstan	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Black	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	12	53%	0.07	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.08
Goga Bitadze	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	13	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	7	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Tristan da Silva	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	5	43%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Cole Anthony	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	12	17%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.08,0.44	0.44	0.10	0.35	0.02	15	70%	0.63	4	-0.19	10	100%	0.13
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.21	0.07	0.01	11	88%	0.28	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.02	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.10	0.00	9	50%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	24	62%	0.25	6	-0.19	12	58%	-0.09
Andre Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	4	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.8	28.2	15.8	26.4	3.3	52.3	155.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +106.3%

ORL -9.6%

ORL -37.1%

ORL -7.0%

ORL -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.5	13.6	14.3	109.0	116.3	111.9
season	15.1	14.7		109.4	112.1
opponent	14.2	14.4		110.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.1	14.8	19.3	14.0	15.5
MIL	14.7	13.4	12.5	13.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tristan da Silva	32	30	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.08	7	-12	19	14.9	15.7	-0.78	15.7	12.7	2.98
Wendell Carter Jr.	70	71	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.27	15	-20	35	15.1	16.3	-1.14	14.1	12.4	1.70
Caleb Houstan	10	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-3	1	14.9	15.5	-0.63	12.6	13.7	-1.15
Jett Howard	29	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-4	3	13.3	16.4	-3.04	13.3	13.7	-0.45
Jalen Suggs	79	79	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-7	9	14.6	18.7	-4.05	13.9	12.5	1.33
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	65	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-4	3	15.9	14.7	1.25	13.4	14.0	-0.61
Goga Bitadze	76	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-1	-3	16.1	13.6	2.43	14.0	12.1	1.89
Cole Anthony	30	29	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	7	-19	17.6	14.6	3.00	12.8	14.0	-1.20
Moritz Wagner	40	38	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.23	-15	10	-25	16.4	14.8	1.55	12.8	14.1	-1.28
Anthony Black	69	68	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.38	-14	9	-23	15.5	15.4	0.17	12.7	15.7	-2.98

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Trent Jr.	49	52	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.42	11	-6	17	13.2	14.0	-0.88	16.0	14.9	1.06
Giannis Antetokounmpo	72	73	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.49	5	0	5	13.5	13.8	-0.23	15.5	15.4	0.09
Bobby Portis	66	67	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.27	11	-6	17	13.2	14.5	-1.38	15.5	15.4	0.16
Khris Middleton	42	44	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.32	4	1	3	11.7	15.0	-3.26	14.8	16.0	-1.20
AJ Green	66	68	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.08	13	-8	21	13.2	14.4	-1.19	16.2	14.0	2.21
Damian Lillard	80	80	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	3	-1	14.0	11.6	2.44	15.0	17.1	-2.10
Taurean Prince	41	41	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	9	-13	14.2	13.2	1.06	15.5	15.4	0.11
Andre Jackson Jr.	18	17	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.15	-9	14	-23	15.7	13.1	2.60	13.1	16.0	-2.91
Brook Lopez	56	58	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.07	-8	13	-21	14.7	12.2	2.51	15.8	15.0	0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.55,0.55,0.17,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 89, ATL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.4,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.47,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.42,1	91.2%
PHI 101, NYK 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.83,0.64,0.64,0.45,0.08,1	91.0%
CHA 123, ATL 124	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.39,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.78,0.86,0.55,0.55,0.58,1	91.0%