NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	133		Excitement	9.1 [171]		MVP	Pat Connaughton (MIL): +55.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	140		Comeback	1.4 [274]		LVP	Ron Harper Jr. (DET): -11.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindy Waters III	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.3	0.09	0.25	0.03	16	56%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.19	-0.01	0.02	14	82%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobi Klintman	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	8	83%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Reed	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Sasser	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.26,0.26,0.14,0.13,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.05	0.04	-0.05	19	44%	0.24	3	-0.21	3	100%	0.04
Tolu Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	9	67%	0.20	2	-0.17	3	67%	-0.02
Simone Fontecchio	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.04	9	79%	0.10	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	4	56%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jalen Duren	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Daniss Jenkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Ron Harper Jr.	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	8	22%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.07,0,0.08,0.19,0.14,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55	0.55	0.22	0.27	-0.05	29	64%	0.60	2	-0.05	9	67%	0.02
Pete Nance	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.08	0.20	-0.02	12	79%	0.44	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.17	0.11	-0.00	9	91%	0.38	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.23	-0.00	0.05	10	105%	0.18	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
AJ Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Umude	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	6	75%	0.05	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jamaree Bouyea	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	58%	0.06	5	-0.12	6	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.3	3.3	26.0	14.7	26.3	2.8	31.4	1.8	14.2	142.9
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	2.3	15.6	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +51.3%

MIL +20.6%

DET -19.6%

MIL +1.2%

DET -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	14.5	14.4	120.9	128.4	113.0
season	14.1	14.4		113.7	114.2
opponent	14.3	14.5		112.2	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	14.4	15.8	13.1	14.1	16.2	14.5
MIL	12.2	14.2	17.6	14.1	15.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tolu Smith	35	35	0.29	-0.79	1.07	-0.12	14	-21	35	14.5	14.5	-0.00	14.4	14.6	-0.18
Simone Fontecchio	40	38	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.28	15	-22	37	13.7	15.0	-1.37	15.5	13.9	1.58
Daniss Jenkins	21	22	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.11	4	-11	15	16.0	14.2	1.86	13.5	14.7	-1.19
Paul Reed	46	46	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-7	7	14.0	14.9	-0.90	15.3	13.9	1.40
Malik Beasley	39	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-8	9	14.1	14.8	-0.73	15.6	13.9	1.66
Ronald Holland II	47	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-8	9	13.8	15.1	-1.29	15.3	13.9	1.40
Jalen Duren	19	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.17	-14	7	-21	14.9	14.5	0.49	12.4	14.9	-2.58
Ron Harper Jr.	35	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-6	5	14.7	14.5	0.25	14.4	14.5	-0.10
Tobias Harris	22	23	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.19	-17	10	-27	14.9	14.5	0.45	12.6	15.0	-2.45
Lindy Waters III	72	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.40	3	-10	13	15.2	13.2	2.00	14.3	14.9	-0.61
Tim Hardaway Jr.	27	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.21	-18	11	-29	14.4	14.6	-0.13	12.2	15.2	-3.02
Bobi Klintman	46	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	15.0	14.2	0.78	15.0	14.1	0.84
Marcus Sasser	91	89	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	4	-15	14.3	15.9	-1.63	14.5	14.3	0.24

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaree Bouyea	96	96	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	2	3	15.0	10.8	4.14	14.7	13.5	1.20
Pat Connaughton	91	91	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.21	7	0	7	14.7	13.6	1.13	14.3	15.8	-1.57
Tyler Smith	60	60	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.41	-1	8	-9	14.7	14.3	0.42	14.4	14.7	-0.36
AJ Green	40	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	-9	25	13.7	14.9	-1.22	15.1	14.3	0.82
Andre Jackson Jr.	73	75	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.46	-4	11	-15	14.6	14.2	0.45	14.3	15.1	-0.75
Kyle Kuzma	27	27	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.21	18	-11	29	12.2	15.2	-3.02	14.4	14.6	-0.13
Stanley Umude	32	34	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	12	-17	14.0	14.7	-0.70	15.1	14.3	0.74
Pete Nance	80	80	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.08	-1	8	-9	14.8	13.7	1.14	14.2	15.5	-1.36
Chris Livingston	37	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.09	-7	14	-21	14.2	14.6	-0.42	14.9	14.3	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.45,0.55,0.66,0.98,0.46,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 110, CHH 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.46,0.53,0.64,0.57,0.92,0.46,0.75,0.71,0.84,0.96,1	89.1%
MEM 97, SEA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.74,0.86,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.86,0.85,0.7,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.58,0.54,0.75,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	88.4%
CHA 109, NYK 118	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.91,0.9,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.83,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.53,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.46,0.69,0.89,0.98,1,1	87.1%