NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	116		Excitement	3.9 [1026]		MVP	Deandre Ayton (POR): +14.3%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	2.2 [159]		LVP	Terry Rozier (MIA): -5.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deandre Ayton	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.05	0.05	14	79%	0.16	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.03	-0.04	14	53%	0.13	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Anfernee Simons	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	-0.00	0.01	20	59%	0.10	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Dalano Banton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	55%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shaedon Sharpe	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	9	60%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Deni Avdija	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	10	50%	-0.04
Robert Williams III	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Walker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scoot Henderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	8	61%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.13	-0.01	0.06	15	73%	0.05	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	9	59%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	14	43%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	0.10	7	73%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	67%	-0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.08	-0.02	0.09	17	56%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	21.6	14.6	26.1	2.5	35.2	127.1
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +48.9%

MIA -7.2%

MIA -1.9%

POR +10.8%

MIA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	15.7	14.4	120.8	111.5	113.0
season	14.3	15.0		110.3	111.5
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.2	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.2	13.6	11.8	17.4	14.3
MIA	15.8	16.4	19.0	12.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deandre Ayton	67	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-2	13	13.7	15.6	-1.90	16.5	14.0	2.51
Jerami Grant	67	68	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	-3	15	14.0	14.9	-0.91	16.1	14.9	1.25
Anfernee Simons	71	69	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	5	-1	14.4	13.9	0.51	15.5	16.3	-0.77
Scoot Henderson	65	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-1	11	14.2	14.4	-0.19	16.0	15.1	0.96
Deni Avdija	77	80	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	5	-1	14.5	13.3	1.18	15.5	16.7	-1.21
Shaedon Sharpe	56	56	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	5	-1	14.2	14.4	-0.24	15.7	15.8	-0.19
Dalano Banton	36	34	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	7	-5	14.7	14.0	0.74	15.4	16.0	-0.60
Jabari Walker	12	10	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	9	-9	12.9	14.5	-1.54	16.2	15.7	0.51
Robert Williams III	29	28	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	11	-13	15.6	13.7	1.90	14.0	16.5	-2.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	8	8	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-11	13	17.4	15.6	1.78	15.4	14.2	1.22
Pelle Larsson	29	29	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.45	15	-24	39	12.6	17.1	-4.52	17.1	13.0	4.07
Duncan Robinson	70	70	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.50	11	-20	31	15.0	17.8	-2.84	15.4	11.2	4.26
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	56	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-6	3	14.9	17.0	-2.12	15.1	13.1	1.95
Kel'el Ware	75	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.47	8	-17	25	15.6	16.1	-0.52	15.1	11.2	3.93
Terry Rozier	44	43	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	2	-13	16.7	15.0	1.70	12.9	15.4	-2.45
Nikola Jovic	70	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-5	1	15.0	17.7	-2.73	14.7	13.1	1.57
Alec Burks	27	28	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.27	-22	13	-35	17.8	14.9	2.89	11.0	15.6	-4.60
Jimmy Butler	54	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.15	-19	10	-29	17.3	13.7	3.60	13.0	15.9	-2.88
Bam Adebayo	47	45	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.21	-22	13	-35	17.0	14.5	2.51	12.2	16.1	-3.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 117, BKN 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.28,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
DAL 111, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
GSW 127, PHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%