NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	117		Excitement	9.4 [138]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +34.8%
Golden State Warriors	120		Comeback	12.9 [149]		LVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): -22.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Grimes	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.15	0.05	0.10	0.00	4	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	13	68%	0.29	5	-0.15	5	80%	0.02
Daniel Gafford	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.22,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	8	79%	0.15	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Dereck Lively II	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	6	63%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.04
Klay Thompson	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.17,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.04	-0.01	17	61%	0.20	2	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Naji Marshall	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	43%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luka Doncic	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.22	0.01	-0.22	0.01	27	54%	-0.06	5	-0.17	3	100%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,0.11,0.08,0.35	0.35	0.13	0.23	0.02	27	63%	0.56	4	-0.21	5	80%	0.04
Jonathan Kuminga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	11	62%	0.14	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.05	-0.02	13	54%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Anthony Melton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	12	58%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.02	6	69%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moses Moody	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.06
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	8	40%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	3.3	30.6	16.3	28.4	2.7	38.0	147.8
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +12.0%

DAL -8.7%

GSW +24.7%

GSW +17.4%

GSW +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	13.9	14.4	112.5	115.4	113.1
season	14.3	14.5		113.3	112.9
opponent	14.5	14.4		110.5	114.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.0	13.2	13.3	15.7	13.8
GSW	14.1	15.6	11.6	14.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaden Hardy	43	41	0.35	-0.85	1.20	-0.12	16	-19	35	12.0	15.0	-3.04	15.7	12.8	2.97
Daniel Gafford	51	54	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-5	7	13.5	14.0	-0.53	13.4	14.5	-1.05
Naji Marshall	51	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.14	-10	7	-17	14.2	13.4	0.78	12.5	15.2	-2.68
Spencer Dinwiddie	25	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	3	-9	12.2	14.3	-2.05	15.1	13.6	1.51
Quentin Grimes	60	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.44	2	-5	7	14.0	13.5	0.53	14.5	13.2	1.27
Luka Doncic	88	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.51	2	-5	7	13.6	14.6	-1.02	14.0	13.4	0.69
Klay Thompson	71	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	0	-3	14.3	12.7	1.60	14.0	13.7	0.32
Dereck Lively II	53	50	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	2	-7	14.0	13.5	0.53	14.5	13.4	1.05
Kyrie Irving	78	79	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.34	-13	10	-23	14.5	11.5	3.06	12.9	17.2	-4.30

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	77	76	1.04	-0.54	1.58	0.34	24	-21	45	12.5	18.0	-5.49	14.7	11.2	3.48
Draymond Green	69	69	0.97	-0.47	1.43	0.38	20	-17	37	12.6	16.5	-3.89	14.8	11.7	3.17
Andrew Wiggins	75	74	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.43	16	-13	29	12.9	16.5	-3.54	14.4	12.2	2.15
De'Anthony Melton	59	55	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.50	12	-9	21	13.4	14.6	-1.14	15.0	12.3	2.71
Jonathan Kuminga	57	58	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.62	-1	4	-5	14.6	13.2	1.39	13.3	14.3	-0.94
Gary Payton II	16	17	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	-1	5	13.5	14.0	-0.51	12.8	13.9	-1.12
Trayce Jackson-Davis	35	32	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	-1	5	12.7	14.6	-1.92	13.5	13.9	-0.33
Kevon Looney	31	34	-0.44	0.94	-1.37	-0.17	-9	12	-21	15.0	13.5	1.57	12.4	14.4	-2.00
Brandin Podziemski	35	36	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	0.06	-19	22	-41	16.9	12.4	4.45	11.5	14.9	-3.41
Moses Moody	23	23	-0.62	1.12	-1.73	-0.18	-15	18	-33	19.0	12.5	6.56	13.5	13.8	-0.31
Buddy Hield	43	46	-0.65	1.15	-1.80	-0.04	-21	24	-45	15.4	12.9	2.53	12.0	15.2	-3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.4,0.51,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.71,0.68,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.66,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.17,0.07,0.16,0.45,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 98, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.83,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.21,0.15,0.26,1	88.8%
LAC 100, SEA 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.57,0.54,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.42,1	88.3%
NYK 68, TOR 70	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.27,1	87.4%