NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	9.8 [89]		MVP	Aaron Gordon (DEN): +29.8%
Denver Nuggets	110		Comeback	3.2 [876]		LVP	Victor Wembanyama (SAS): -36.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.06	-0.02	8	56%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Zach Collins	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	11	57%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Cedi Osman	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	7	71%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malaki Branham	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.01,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.07	0.00	19	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Julian Champagnie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.03	0.01	10	48%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Sidy Cissoko	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devonte' Graham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Wesley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	5	17%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Tre Jones	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	0.01	-0.17	-0.01	11	45%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.18,-0.36	-0.13	-0.26	-0.03	29	36%	-0.31	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.21	0.10	0.01	12	85%	0.30	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.2	0.20	-0.01	0.19	-0.02	16	43%	0.22	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.08	0.01	32	60%	0.40	4	-0.20	6	83%	0.01
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	6	42%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	8	22%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	5	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.28	-0.28	-0.08	-0.21	-0.02	13	35%	-0.20	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	25.9	14.6	28.5	2.4	32.3	129.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.6%

DEN +19.7%

SAS -23.6%

SAS -10.2%

DEN +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	14.5	14.5	104.0	108.9	113.9
season	13.9	14.9		108.6	116.6
opponent	14.6	14.3		111.7	115.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.4	13.8	12.8	15.1	14.0
DEN	13.8	15.6	13.9	14.9	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tre Jones	70	69	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.24	13	-18	31	13.0	16.4	-3.37	15.2	12.9	2.37
Cedi Osman	39	39	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-7	9	13.6	14.3	-0.70	15.0	14.2	0.82
Sidy Cissoko	10	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-5	5	14.2	14.0	0.20	12.5	14.7	-2.19
Zach Collins	34	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-6	7	16.4	12.8	3.52	14.5	14.5	0.01
Julian Champagnie	80	80	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-4	3	13.2	17.2	-4.00	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Sandro Mamukelashvili	51	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-5	5	13.8	14.3	-0.48	14.9	14.1	0.80
Blake Wesley	28	29	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	3	-11	17.1	12.8	4.32	14.1	14.6	-0.50
Malaki Branham	80	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	-2	-1	13.6	15.6	-2.02	14.8	13.5	1.29
Victor Wembanyama	74	73	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.39	-9	4	-13	13.4	15.6	-2.20	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Devonte' Graham	39	40	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.10	-20	15	-35	16.0	12.8	3.18	12.9	15.6	-2.68

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	70	71	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.43	11	-6	17	14.5	14.5	-0.08	13.7	14.8	-1.11
Justin Holiday	45	45	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	-4	13	14.3	14.7	-0.37	15.9	12.5	3.37
Christian Braun	57	59	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.41	-2	7	-9	14.0	15.1	-1.06	13.9	14.1	-0.21
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	72	72	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	2	1	14.2	15.2	-1.00	12.9	16.8	-3.89
Nikola Jokic	81	81	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.15	5	0	5	14.2	15.5	-1.25	13.4	16.6	-3.28
Michael Porter Jr.	76	75	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.37	-3	8	-11	14.8	13.4	1.40	13.5	15.6	-2.15
Reggie Jackson	53	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.08	8	-3	11	15.1	13.9	1.18	14.8	13.1	1.70
Peyton Watson	40	39	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	5	-5	14.4	14.5	-0.12	15.7	13.0	2.72
DeAndre Jordan	11	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	11	-17	16.7	14.2	2.51	15.0	13.9	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.45,0.27,0.26,0.45,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.52,0.75,0.83,0.92,0.87,0.89,0.78,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 89, PHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.64,0.55,0.72,1	89.2%
LAL 109, SEA 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.71,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.78,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.53,1	89.2%
HOU 103, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.8,0.67,0.76,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	88.6%