NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	142		Excitement	11.3 [37]		MVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): +88.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	143		Comeback	124.0 [20]		LVP	Keegan Murray (SAC): -6.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Huerter	0.47	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.47,0.47	0.24	0.24	0.01	14	93%	0.54	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0.34	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.34	0.03	0.31	0.00	26	54%	0.54	4	-0.20	7	86%	0.02
Malik Monk	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21	0.06	0.15	-0.00	21	54%	0.27	1	-0.05	10	60%	-0.01
Harrison Barnes	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	9	74%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.00	0.03	10	95%	0.21	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Vezenkov	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	8	56%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	9	22%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.29,0.88	0.88	0.06	0.83	0.00	23	56%	1.03	4	-0.15	6	100%	0.13
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23	0.23	0.07	0.16	0.00	15	57%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.07	0.02	11	92%	0.28	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.03	-0.00	7	94%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.00	3	62%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.07	0.00	16	59%	0.22	4	-0.11	14	64%	-0.02
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.17	-0.06	0.02	12	82%	0.13	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.9	2.5	33.5	15.3	23.5	2.4	38.3	1.6	18.0	159.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.4	15.0	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +20.7%

MIL +31.5%

SAC -10.8%

SAC -1.3%

MIL +9.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIL	NBA	SAC	MIL	NBA
this game	13.0	15.1	14.5	124.6	126.5	113.9
season	14.0	14.3		115.6	117.0
opponent	14.3	14.8		114.8	113.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	14.4	15.3	12.8	10.8	10.3	13.0
MIL	14.4	14.0	14.9	16.3	16.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keegan Murray	40	40	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-2	3	14.6	12.1	2.51	14.3	15.5	-1.17
Trey Lyles	74	69	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.33	10	-11	21	12.3	14.1	-1.81	15.5	14.3	1.20
Domantas Sabonis	98	96	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.34	7	-8	15	12.8	13.9	-1.05	15.2	14.0	1.24
Sasha Vezenkov	14	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	4	-9	12.8	13.0	-0.21	13.5	15.3	-1.77
Kevin Huerter	83	83	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.41	4	-5	9	12.9	13.3	-0.39	15.4	14.1	1.34
Harrison Barnes	66	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	0	-1	13.4	12.4	1.00	15.1	15.0	0.05
Alex Len	23	23	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	6	-13	14.0	12.7	1.34	13.9	15.3	-1.43
De'Aaron Fox	93	92	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.51	-3	2	-5	13.0	13.0	-0.03	15.0	15.5	-0.52
Malik Monk	79	78	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.39	-11	10	-21	12.4	14.2	-1.81	15.1	14.9	0.24

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brook Lopez	89	87	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.55	5	-4	9	14.9	15.5	-0.51	12.6	14.3	-1.73
Pat Connaughton	71	72	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	-4	9	15.5	14.4	1.07	12.1	14.5	-2.45
Malik Beasley	97	96	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.50	-1	2	-3	15.3	13.3	2.03	12.7	14.6	-1.88
Bobby Portis	52	53	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.05	10	-9	19	15.1	15.0	0.04	13.9	12.2	1.67
Damian Lillard	90	91	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.43	-6	7	-13	14.9	15.7	-0.86	12.5	15.0	-2.59
Cameron Payne	23	23	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	-6	13	15.7	14.9	0.86	15.0	12.5	2.59
Andre Jackson Jr.	21	24	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	-1	3	13.3	15.4	-2.11	14.9	12.5	2.41
Giannis Antetokounmpo	85	88	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.34	-13	14	-27	15.2	14.7	0.40	12.8	13.4	-0.58
AJ Green	37	36	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	5	-9	14.5	15.3	-0.80	14.3	12.4	1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.46,0.39,0.22,0.24,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 89, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.81,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.84,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.73,1	88.6%
OKC 118, DEN 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.91,0.99,0.97,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.63,0.43,0.27,1	88.6%
ORL 89, NOH 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.63,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.67,0.69,0.85,0.93,0.99,0.54,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.58,1	88.4%