NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	116		Excitement	9.4 [113]		MVP	Coby White (CHI): +53.6%
Miami Heat	118		Comeback	7.4 [232]		LVP	Nikola Vucevic (CHI): -22.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Coby White	0.54	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.41,0.54,0.54	0.11	0.40	-0.02	15	65%	0.56	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Patrick Williams	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.21	0.05	-0.00	10	100%	0.34	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.23	0.15	0.11	0.03	13	77%	0.39	3	-0.15	9	89%	0.08
Torrey Craig	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.02	0.03	7	94%	0.16	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Julian Phillips	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dalen Terry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ayo Dosunmu	-0.19	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	11	36%	-0.10	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.23	-0.08	-0.16	-0.02	13	37%	-0.19	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.16,-0.04,0.32	0.32	0.08	0.25	0.01	18	60%	0.37	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.04
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.14	0.01	8	71%	0.27	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.03
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.20	-0.03	0.02	12	92%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.01	14	62%	0.18	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.09,-0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	7	56%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	2	40%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	1.8	24.2	14.6	32.4	1.8	26.8	128.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.1%

CHI -21.3%

MIA +11.4%

MIA +22.7%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	16.3	14.5	126.1	129.7	113.9
season	14.5	14.9		113.4	112.3
opponent	14.8	15.0		111.0	115.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.5	14.4	14.0	15.0	15.2
MIA	15.9	17.5	13.7	18.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Williams	63	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.48	12	-14	26	14.2	17.3	-3.17	17.2	14.2	2.97
Andre Drummond	22	21	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	1	-4	14.0	15.5	-1.54	16.5	16.2	0.28
Torrey Craig	24	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	9	-20	18.5	14.0	4.56	15.5	16.6	-1.09
Dalen Terry	31	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	5	-12	15.4	15.1	0.27	14.8	17.1	-2.35
Ayo Dosunmu	78	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.46	6	-8	14	15.0	15.9	-0.89	17.1	12.3	4.76
Jevon Carter	24	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	8	-18	14.5	15.4	-0.86	13.5	17.4	-3.88
DeMar DeRozan	82	78	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.46	5	-7	12	15.1	15.9	-0.81	16.5	15.2	1.35
Coby White	75	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.43	3	-5	8	15.3	14.6	0.65	16.6	15.1	1.56
Nikola Vucevic	61	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	3	-8	15.6	14.3	1.28	16.0	16.9	-0.93

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	50	50	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.45	19	-17	36	15.8	17.0	-1.17	15.6	14.6	0.98
Jimmy Butler	66	65	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.41	12	-10	22	15.8	17.6	-1.78	15.8	13.7	2.13
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	65	67	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.44	8	-6	14	15.9	17.3	-1.35	15.2	15.2	-0.04
Caleb Martin	71	69	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-7	16	15.9	17.6	-1.72	15.6	14.0	1.62
Kyle Lowry	61	59	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	-6	14	15.8	17.4	-1.68	15.7	14.2	1.55
Orlando Robinson	21	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	3	-4	16.6	16.2	0.40	15.6	15.0	0.61
Thomas Bryant	11	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	10	-18	18.9	15.9	2.96	14.3	15.3	-1.02
Haywood Highsmith	26	28	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.13	-10	12	-22	17.1	16.0	1.13	13.6	15.8	-2.20
Josh Richardson	39	42	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.06	-12	14	-26	17.4	15.5	1.84	14.1	16.1	-1.98
Duncan Robinson	45	47	-0.42	0.92	-1.35	0.02	-15	17	-32	17.4	15.3	2.07	14.4	16.0	-1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.59,0.57,0.45,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.49,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.68,0.74,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.36,0.33,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 95, HOU 96	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.78,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.61,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.46,0.27,0.47,0.46,0.14,0.26,1	88.7%
SEA 102, NOK 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.23,0.27,1	88.4%
DET 89, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.33,0.25,0.46,0.32,0.42,1	87.9%