NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	114		Excitement	8.8 [183]		MVP	Jerami Grant (POR): +54.5%
Indiana Pacers	110		Comeback	1.6 [167]		LVP	Buddy Hield (IND): -21.3%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0.55	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.43,0.37,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.55	0.26	0.30	0.02	18	79%	0.61	1	-0.06	7	100%	0.05
Malcolm Brogdon	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12	0.04	0.05	-0.03	20	52%	0.18	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.03
Deandre Ayton	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.04	0.02	13	73%	0.21	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
Toumani Camara	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Duop Reath	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Scoot Henderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.10	4	-0.15	6	50%	-0.05
Matisse Thybulle	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Walker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shaedon Sharpe	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	15	34%	-0.05	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.25	0.21	0.07	0.03	17	77%	0.34	3	-0.09	9	89%	0.05
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	6	54%	0.13	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.04
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	10	55%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ben Sheppard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	9	45%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.01	11	48%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	10	44%	0.00	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	0.00	2	0%	-0.08	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.05
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21	-0.21	-0.05	-0.15	0.01	10	41%	-0.10	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	31.7	15.0	32.0	2.4	39.0	148.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +36.3%

POR +10.2%

IND -1.0%

POR +11.2%

IND -6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	IND	NBA	POR	IND	NBA
this game	14.8	12.6	14.5	108.6	104.8	113.9
season	14.8	13.8		106.9	120.0
opponent	14.7	14.5		117.4	116.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.4	13.9	17.6	13.0	14.8
IND	13.4	12.7	13.1	11.4	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deandre Ayton	85	85	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.51	3	1	2	14.4	16.5	-2.14	12.9	11.2	1.74
Matisse Thybulle	64	63	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.26	10	-6	16	14.4	15.5	-1.18	12.6	12.7	-0.10
Jerami Grant	83	84	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	1	2	14.6	15.8	-1.21	13.0	11.1	1.89
Shaedon Sharpe	78	79	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	1	2	14.6	15.4	-0.74	12.6	12.5	0.09
Malcolm Brogdon	79	77	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.48	-6	10	-16	15.6	12.6	2.98	12.3	13.5	-1.17
Scoot Henderson	46	48	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.13	10	-6	16	14.4	15.1	-0.68	13.1	12.2	0.99
Toumani Camara	38	37	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	4	-4	14.9	14.8	0.12	12.6	12.6	-0.06
Duop Reath	20	20	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.13	1	3	-2	16.5	14.4	2.14	11.2	12.9	-1.74
Jabari Walker	32	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	8	-12	15.5	14.5	0.98	11.6	13.0	-1.42

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. McConnell	22	19	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-8	12	13.0	12.5	0.49	16.5	14.4	2.08
Isaiah Jackson	26	24	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-5	6	11.0	13.1	-2.09	15.5	14.6	0.83
Obi Toppin	40	41	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-4	4	13.4	12.1	1.28	14.9	14.8	0.10
Ben Sheppard	1	2	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-1	-2	24.0	12.5	11.50	19.5	14.7	4.77
Buddy Hield	54	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.21	4	-8	12	13.2	12.0	1.19	14.7	15.0	-0.33
Jalen Smith	24	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.11	-8	4	-12	15.5	11.8	3.69	14.7	14.9	-0.14
Bennedict Mathurin	48	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	5	-14	12.4	12.8	-0.39	15.0	14.7	0.26
Andrew Nembhard	47	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	0	-4	11.5	13.5	-1.99	15.1	14.6	0.49
Bruce Brown	68	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.44	2	-6	8	13.0	11.9	1.07	14.9	14.7	0.16
Myles Turner	57	59	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.47	2	-6	8	12.2	13.1	-0.91	14.6	15.1	-0.44
Aaron Nesmith	60	60	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	2	-8	11.1	14.6	-3.41	14.4	15.3	-0.90
Tyrese Haliburton	78	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	-1	-2	13.1	11.2	1.87	14.3	16.2	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.42,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.27,0.34,0.48,0.5,0.35,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.22,0.38,0.16,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 105, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.01,0.01,0	93.1%
ORL 104, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.41,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.09,0.02,0	93.1%
DET 87, MEM 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.11,0.15,0.05,0	92.6%