NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	119		Excitement	6.6 [595]		MVP	Naz Reid (MIN): +22.4%
Sacramento Kings	115		Comeback	1.7 [434]		LVP	Trey Lyles (SAC): -15.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naz Reid	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.12	0.00	12	64%	0.22	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0.22	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.09	-0.00	8	80%	0.22	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kyle Anderson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.02	10	62%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jaden McDaniels	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.09	0.04	0.02	15	59%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Jaylen Nowell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	11	58%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gobert	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	9	62%	0.14	2	-0.07	8	75%	0.03
Jordan McLaughlin	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.05	-0.04	15	45%	0.10	1	-0.04	8	50%	-0.03
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.07	0.01	14	77%	0.28	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.03	-0.01	20	58%	0.17	1	-0.01	10	80%	0.02
Kevin Huerter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.07	0.04	7	81%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	12	54%	0.05	0	0.00	11	82%	0.03
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Kessler Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	13	40%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	8	19%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	6	31%	-0.08	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	32.2	14.0	27.0	1.8	42.2	144.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +60.6%

SAC -12.0%

SAC -1.0%

MIN +5.5%

SAC -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAC	NBA	MIN	SAC	NBA
this game	16.4	13.3	14.4	122.7	118.6	113.4
season	14.1	13.5		112.4	117.3
opponent	14.8	14.3		115.2	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	17.4	14.5	18.8	15.4	16.4
SAC	15.4	12.2	13.9	12.3	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gobert	70	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.29	9	-5	14	17.3	13.8	3.53	13.3	13.5	-0.28
Jaden McDaniels	81	81	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.35	6	-2	8	16.4	16.3	0.06	13.1	14.5	-1.40
Mike Conley	54	54	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	-4	12	17.7	14.7	2.95	13.1	13.6	-0.41
Anthony Edwards	78	76	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	-2	8	16.6	15.4	1.23	13.4	13.0	0.48
Kyle Anderson	75	74	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	4	-4	16.4	16.4	-0.00	13.1	14.0	-0.94
Jordan McLaughlin	33	33	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	3	-2	15.4	16.9	-1.51	13.8	13.1	0.74
Jaylen Nowell	33	35	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.12	1	3	-2	14.9	17.1	-2.25	13.4	13.3	0.06
Naz Reid	43	43	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.26	-8	12	-20	15.1	17.4	-2.32	13.2	13.4	-0.17
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	18	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	7	-10	15.2	16.6	-1.47	14.9	13.0	1.98

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kessler Edwards	10	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-1	-2	15.7	13.1	2.64	17.7	16.2	1.49
Davion Mitchell	26	27	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	0	-4	13.4	13.3	0.07	15.3	16.8	-1.48
Alex Len	17	16	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-4	4	13.1	13.4	-0.33	14.9	16.6	-1.70
Keegan Murray	53	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-4	4	13.6	13.0	0.65	17.6	14.8	2.86
Harrison Barnes	66	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-6	8	13.7	12.6	1.05	17.3	14.0	3.32
Trey Lyles	51	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.41	6	-10	16	12.5	14.3	-1.81	13.9	19.1	-5.27
Kevin Huerter	57	56	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	3	-10	13.1	13.7	-0.63	15.9	17.0	-1.11
Domantas Sabonis	77	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	3	-10	13.5	12.5	0.98	17.2	12.9	4.31
De'Aaron Fox	71	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-3	2	13.3	13.4	-0.07	16.8	15.3	1.48
Malik Monk	57	54	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.24	-6	2	-8	13.1	13.7	-0.59	15.7	17.2	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.41,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.23,0.36,0.2,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 98, VAN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.13,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,0	93.4%
PHI 104, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0	93.2%
SAS 87, LAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.07,0.03,0.04,0,0	93.2%