NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	118		Excitement	10.9 [49]		MVP	Al Horford (BOS): +37.4%
Boston Celtics	121		Comeback	9.6 [255]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -46.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Draymond Green	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.11	-0.00	5	79%	0.24	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Stephen Curry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.12,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	25	53%	0.15	3	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Donte DiVincenzo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.07	0.01	16	67%	0.20	3	-0.19	4	100%	0.02
Kevon Looney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Lamb	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	18	45%	-0.04	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Jordan Poole	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14	-0.02	-0.13	-0.00	25	46%	-0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.36,0.36,0.37	0.37	0.14	0.23	-0.00	13	71%	0.37	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.09	0.24	-0.01	18	38%	0.22	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Robert Williams III	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	8	74%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	16	53%	0.06	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	15	42%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	6	7%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.27,-0.47,-0.47,-0.52,-0.52,-0.46,-0.46	-0.46	-0.05	-0.40	0.01	27	52%	0.08	7	-0.54	12	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.4	2.7	30.8	16.5	29.7	3.5	31.9	1.8	17.0	157.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +26.1%

GSW -5.8%

BOS +54.7%

GSW -29.0%

BOS +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	BOS	NBA	GSW	BOS	NBA
this game	12.8	14.1	14.4	99.2	102.5	113.4
season	13.9	14.5		114.1	116.3
opponent	14.6	14.1		110.6	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	12.6	12.8	12.5	14.3	10.0	12.8
BOS	13.6	12.9	14.7	12.9	20.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevon Looney	45	42	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.08	3	-6	9	13.1	12.6	0.52	13.7	14.3	-0.60
Donte DiVincenzo	63	59	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.18	-4	1	-5	13.2	12.4	0.78	14.1	14.0	0.14
Anthony Lamb	41	38	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.09	-7	4	-11	13.9	12.2	1.62	13.4	14.3	-0.93
Stephen Curry	98	96	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.57	9	-12	21	12.6	13.7	-1.06	13.9	14.5	-0.55
Klay Thompson	78	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.53	2	-5	7	12.4	13.4	-0.99	14.6	12.8	1.89
Andrew Wiggins	90	90	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.38	-7	4	-11	12.7	13.1	-0.46	14.1	13.8	0.35
Draymond Green	82	85	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.47	-4	1	-5	12.9	12.6	0.32	14.0	14.1	-0.06
Jordan Poole	98	99	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.46	-7	4	-11	12.4	14.4	-1.99	14.0	14.5	-0.50

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	109	108	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.38	7	-4	11	14.1	14.0	0.06	12.7	14.1	-1.43
Marcus Smart	86	86	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.52	-2	5	-7	13.8	14.7	-0.96	12.3	14.1	-1.84
Jaylen Brown	91	93	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.52	-6	9	-15	14.6	12.1	2.47	12.5	13.8	-1.30
Al Horford	86	87	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	5	-7	13.2	16.4	-3.23	12.3	14.1	-1.74
Malcolm Brogdon	67	67	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	-5	13	13.1	15.3	-2.12	14.2	10.9	3.28
Grant Williams	27	29	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.09	7	-4	11	13.6	14.2	-0.64	13.8	12.5	1.33
Luke Kornet	16	17	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.02	3	0	3	12.8	14.2	-1.43	14.1	12.6	1.48
Derrick White	36	37	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	-1	5	14.4	13.9	0.57	14.2	12.2	2.03
Robert Williams III	62	61	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.10	-7	10	-17	15.1	12.9	2.27	12.0	13.6	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.47,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.54,0.68,0.66,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 94, ATL 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.58,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.28,0.46,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.72,1	89.8%
HOU 117, PHI 123	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.32,0.41,0.46,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.58,1	89.6%
MEM 95, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.23,0.14,0.25,0.33,0.29,0.21,0.05,0.15,0.46,0.47,0.64,0.94,0.98,1	89.4%