NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	116		Excitement	9.3 [144]		MVP	Jerami Grant (POR): +46.9%
Utah Jazz	111		Comeback	3.2 [349]		LVP	Malik Beasley (UTA): -17.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0.47	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.47	0.20	0.28	0.00	18	66%	0.50	1	-0.03	14	79%	-0.03
Anfernee Simons	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17	0.22	-0.01	0.04	25	78%	0.46	7	-0.28	8	100%	0.14
Greg Brown III	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	4	67%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Trendon Watford	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.10	1	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.01	12	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Shaedon Sharpe	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	11	27%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Walker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.05	0.13	-0.00	8	68%	0.19	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Collin Sexton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.07	0.01	11	68%	0.23	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.02	0.00	8	100%	0.16	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walker Kessler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	4	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	26	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Talen Horton-Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Lauri Markkanen	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,-0.17	-0.17	0.06	-0.23	0.00	10	72%	0.24	5	-0.41	9	100%	0.05
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	9	17%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	31.6	15.3	25.5	0.1	35.0	133.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA -17.1%

POR +40.0%

POR +17.2%

POR +3.9%

POR +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	UTA	NBA	POR	UTA	NBA
this game	14.7	13.8	14.4	116.0	108.8	113.4
season	14.7	14.3		113.4	114.4
opponent	14.1	14.1		115.5	117.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	13.2	14.2	17.0	14.8	14.7
UTA	13.5	13.0	14.3	14.6	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Simons	86	87	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	0	5	14.8	13.8	1.06	13.7	14.7	-0.99
Justise Winslow	83	85	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.36	0	5	-5	14.7	14.8	-0.15	13.6	14.8	-1.13
Jusuf Nurkic	80	82	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	6	-7	15.0	13.5	1.44	13.6	14.8	-1.21
Jerami Grant	77	77	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.38	-2	7	-9	15.1	13.4	1.70	14.2	12.6	1.62
Jabari Walker	27	28	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	-7	19	13.5	15.1	-1.62	13.9	13.8	0.10
Shaedon Sharpe	35	37	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	-4	13	13.8	15.2	-1.38	14.5	13.5	1.00
Trendon Watford	75	75	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	5	-5	14.8	14.5	0.29	13.4	15.0	-1.60
Greg Brown III	37	39	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.14	2	3	-1	14.5	14.8	-0.25	14.4	13.4	0.99

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Simone Fontecchio	24	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-5	5	15.0	13.4	1.59	15.5	14.4	1.11
Collin Sexton	65	65	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.38	8	-13	21	13.8	13.9	-0.15	15.4	13.5	1.91
Jarred Vanderbilt	67	67	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.35	5	-10	15	13.0	15.3	-2.27	14.9	14.2	0.68
Lauri Markkanen	76	74	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-11	17	13.7	14.2	-0.55	15.0	13.8	1.15
Kelly Olynyk	75	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.27	1	-6	7	13.4	14.9	-1.50	14.8	14.4	0.43
Walker Kessler	36	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.02	-10	5	-15	14.9	13.2	1.69	14.1	15.0	-0.97
Talen Horton-Tucker	37	35	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	8	-21	13.9	13.8	0.15	13.5	15.4	-1.91
Jordan Clarkson	75	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	13.7	14.1	-0.39	14.8	14.5	0.22
Malik Beasley	55	53	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.06	-18	13	-31	14.4	13.1	1.25	13.8	15.7	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.25,0.29,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.28,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.28,0.45,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 115, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.25,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.28,0.31,0.27,0	91.2%
DAL 106, OKC 103	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.34,0.19,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.39,0.49,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.46,0.32,0.14,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.58,0	90.9%
DET 84, MIL 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.33,0.34,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.28,0	90.2%