NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	129		Excitement	8.8 [203]		MVP	Kevin Huerter (SAC): +39.0%
Sacramento Kings	137		Comeback	5.7 [483]		LVP	Keegan Murray (SAC): -10.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Bagley III	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.01	9	65%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Kevin Knox II	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	7	79%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.08	0.00	10	60%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	12	78%	0.21	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Jalen Duren	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	8	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Ivey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.2,0.05,0.05	0.11	-0.05	0.01	14	71%	0.22	3	-0.17	6	67%	-0.04
Hamidou Diallo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Livers	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	13	47%	0.03	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.07
Killian Hayes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.01	9	47%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.18,0.11,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.10	0.30	0.01	19	63%	0.44	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.23	0.12	0.04	11	82%	0.32	0	0.00	11	91%	0.03
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22	0.22	0.19	0.05	0.02	18	73%	0.28	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.04
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	83%	0.16	3	-0.07	8	75%	0.02
Chimezie Metu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	6	57%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.09	0.01	10	52%	-0.02	2	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	30.3	18.4	29.8	1.8	39.5	148.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +24.5%

DET -2.8%

SAC +15.9%

SAC +12.9%

DET -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	15.3	12.7	14.4	125.2	134.3	113.4
season	14.6	13.5		109.6	117.3
opponent	14.8	14.2		115.2	117.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	14.8	16.5	15.1	15.3
SAC	13.2	11.9	11.8	14.3	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Knox II	50	47	0.45	-0.95	1.40	0.07	13	-21	34	14.6	16.0	-1.44	12.9	12.6	0.28
Hamidou Diallo	40	39	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.06	4	-12	16	14.1	16.1	-1.99	13.1	12.5	0.62
Isaiah Livers	33	34	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.08	3	-11	14	16.9	14.6	2.26	12.5	12.9	-0.41
Cory Joseph	37	35	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.01	6	-14	20	13.5	16.3	-2.81	12.9	12.6	0.30
Jalen Duren	62	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-1	-6	14.5	16.6	-2.03	11.7	14.2	-2.46
Marvin Bagley III	41	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-7	6	16.6	14.5	2.03	14.2	11.7	2.46
Killian Hayes	61	61	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.31	-10	2	-12	15.9	14.5	1.46	12.6	13.0	-0.43
Jaden Ivey	66	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.25	-14	6	-20	16.3	13.5	2.81	12.6	12.9	-0.30
Alec Burks	54	54	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	3	-14	14.5	16.3	-1.77	12.6	12.9	-0.36
Bojan Bogdanovic	71	71	-0.97	0.47	-1.45	-0.30	-23	15	-38	16.0	14.0	1.99	12.8	12.5	0.33

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harrison Barnes	76	76	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.30	20	-12	32	12.8	12.7	0.12	15.5	14.9	0.56
Kevin Huerter	80	80	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.27	20	-12	32	12.8	12.5	0.37	15.9	13.3	2.68
De'Aaron Fox	75	77	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-4	16	13.1	11.6	1.52	14.8	16.8	-1.96
Domantas Sabonis	69	70	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-4	16	13.5	11.2	2.27	16.0	14.0	1.97
Keegan Murray	71	73	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-1	10	12.9	12.5	0.38	16.2	13.2	3.07
Davion Mitchell	32	31	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	12	-16	12.1	13.0	-0.95	16.1	15.0	1.13
Chimezie Metu	33	33	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	12	-16	11.2	13.5	-2.27	14.0	16.0	-1.97
Trey Lyles	23	23	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	12	-16	13.2	12.6	0.61	13.7	15.8	-2.06
Terence Davis	8	8	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.04	-5	13	-18	11.2	12.9	-1.62	14.7	15.4	-0.64
Malik Monk	43	44	-0.51	1.01	-1.52	-0.04	-16	24	-40	12.2	13.2	-1.01	13.8	16.5	-2.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.36,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.15,0.36,0.4,0.17,0.25,0.46,0.45,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 100, ORL 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.51,0.42,0.19,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.32,0.46,0.55,0.73,1	91.6%
MIA 72, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.55,0.92,1	90.9%
UTA 82, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.72,1	90.7%