NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	8.5 [200]		MVP	Austin Rivers (DEN): +34.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	95		Comeback	5.6 [383]		LVP	Facundo Campazzo (DEN): -21.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Rivers	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.16	0.18	0.00	13	85%	0.39	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.00	10	64%	0.16	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Davon Reed	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,-0.14,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	21	47%	0.08	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.10
Zeke Nnaji	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
JaMychal Green	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	3	100%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.05	-0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.09	-0.00	-0.07	0.02	14	47%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Aaron Gordon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	9	22%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.13	-0.14	-0.05	4	10%	-0.08	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19	0.19	0.08	0.13	0.01	4	100%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tre Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	7	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	62%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Aleksej Pokusevski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.09	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	-0.03	13	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Josh Giddey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.11	-0.01	10	60%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.04,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	9	56%	0.05	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	14	25%	-0.17	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.7	23.2	14.5	26.7	1.8	27.5	121.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -0.5%

DEN +20.3%

DEN +42.6%

OKC -13.9%

DEN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	16.7	14.8	14.5	107.6	104.4	110.8
season	14.8	14.4		113.4	103.2
opponent	14.4	14.4		111.2	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	17.0	17.2	16.7	16.7
OKC	16.2	15.0	12.8	15.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	47	47	0.95	-0.45	1.39	0.42	18	-14	32	17.0	16.3	0.73	14.9	14.7	0.15
Aaron Gordon	45	44	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.33	11	-7	18	18.0	15.4	2.53	14.5	15.1	-0.63
Nikola Jokic	61	61	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-6	16	17.5	15.0	2.51	14.7	15.0	-0.25
Will Barton	57	57	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.26	8	-4	12	17.3	15.6	1.72	14.1	16.0	-1.91
Austin Rivers	61	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.44	0	4	-4	16.1	17.8	-1.68	14.9	14.5	0.40
JaMychal Green	33	32	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.08	6	-2	8	17.5	16.2	1.23	14.7	14.8	-0.13
Davon Reed	17	16	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	4	-4	14.1	17.2	-3.12	16.9	14.3	2.59
Bones Hyland	18	18	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.11	-4	8	-12	17.0	16.6	0.42	15.2	14.7	0.45
Zeke Nnaji	31	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.14	-6	10	-16	15.0	17.5	-2.51	15.0	14.7	0.25
Jeff Green	45	45	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	13	-22	15.6	17.7	-2.17	15.0	14.6	0.39
Facundo Campazzo	45	44	-0.45	0.95	-1.39	-0.04	-14	18	-32	16.3	17.0	-0.73	14.7	14.9	-0.15

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenrich Williams	34	34	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.11	9	-13	22	15.4	14.5	0.93	16.8	16.6	0.16
Tre Mann	37	36	0.35	-0.85	1.21	0.09	9	-13	22	15.5	14.3	1.20	16.1	17.0	-0.95
Aaron Wiggins	35	36	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.08	5	-9	14	15.4	14.4	1.02	16.4	16.8	-0.36
Darius Bazley	46	47	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.06	5	-9	14	15.2	14.4	0.80	16.2	17.2	-1.01
Aleksej Pokusevski	24	26	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.15	9	-13	22	15.7	14.5	1.23	14.9	17.4	-2.48
Derrick Favors	29	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.07	-4	0	-4	15.2	14.6	0.59	16.4	16.8	-0.37
Josh Giddey	61	62	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.31	-8	4	-12	14.4	15.6	-1.24	17.0	15.9	1.13
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	49	50	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.48	-9	5	-14	14.3	15.4	-1.12	17.1	16.1	1.00
Mike Muscala	26	24	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.53	-8	4	-12	14.2	15.0	-0.80	17.4	16.4	0.96
Luguentz Dort	55	55	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.41	-13	9	-22	14.2	15.7	-1.48	17.0	16.2	0.84
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	59	59	-0.89	0.39	-1.29	-0.45	-15	11	-26	14.4	15.5	-1.08	17.0	16.0	0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.31,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.22,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.54,0.61,0.84,0.72,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 114, BKN 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.61,0.71,0.32,0.02,0	90.0%
NOH 100, OKC 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.33,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.33,0.21,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.32,0.28,0	89.8%
IND 117, CLE 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.33,0.16,0	89.7%