NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	110		Excitement	6.4 [563]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +19.9%
Utah Jazz	122		Comeback	1.9 [837]		LVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): -10.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.22	0.02	0.04	9	96%	0.21	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.01
Monte Morris	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.03	0.01	13	73%	0.13	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	16	58%	0.16	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
Jeff Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.02	0.04	5	53%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Facundo Campazzo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.05	-0.02	13	67%	0.10	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Austin Rivers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Dozier	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	18	36%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.07	-0.02	15	59%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.02	-0.03	9	83%	0.15	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.04	0.04	6	93%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	71%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	14	47%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.14,-0.09,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	8	72%	0.16	4	-0.16	16	56%	-0.06
Jared Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Paschall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	20	51%	0.07	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	36.5	15.8	29.0	2.8	35.8	148.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +23.0%

UTA +11.0%

UTA +19.6%

DEN -4.3%

UTA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.1	14.0	14.5	105.8	120.8	110.8
season	14.8	14.8		113.4	115.1
opponent	14.7	14.4		110.0	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.9	14.9	14.6	13.2	14.1
UTA	13.3	12.8	14.2	15.7	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	34	34	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.07	7	-19	26	13.7	14.4	-0.68	13.4	14.2	-0.83
Will Barton	81	77	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-15	18	13.9	15.0	-1.17	14.1	13.6	0.49
Aaron Gordon	74	73	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-11	10	14.0	14.4	-0.42	13.8	14.2	-0.40
Michael Porter Jr.	85	83	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.21	2	-14	16	13.7	15.9	-2.15	14.2	12.9	1.24
Austin Rivers	11	11	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	-2	-8	16.1	13.9	2.19	13.6	14.0	-0.36
Monte Morris	75	73	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-9	6	14.2	13.9	0.33	14.2	13.2	0.98
JaMychal Green	38	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	0	-12	15.2	13.5	1.61	14.0	14.0	0.02
Jeff Green	47	43	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	-1	-10	13.5	14.7	-1.18	14.1	13.8	0.31
P.J. Dozier	35	35	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.03	-18	6	-24	14.8	13.8	0.96	13.4	14.3	-0.86
Facundo Campazzo	40	39	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.12	-17	5	-22	14.6	13.8	0.80	13.8	14.0	-0.23

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Clarkson	51	52	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.11	19	-7	26	13.7	14.2	-0.51	14.3	14.0	0.35
Eric Paschall	27	28	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.11	16	-4	20	13.9	14.0	-0.05	16.1	13.4	2.65
Joe Ingles	60	62	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-4	20	13.7	14.4	-0.68	13.3	15.4	-2.17
Mike Conley	60	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	0	12	14.7	12.9	1.74	15.0	12.9	2.07
Rudy Gobert	65	69	0.41	0.10	0.31	0.11	10	2	8	14.5	13.1	1.41	15.0	12.3	2.70
Hassan Whiteside	36	35	0.10	0.41	-0.31	0.04	2	10	-8	13.1	14.5	-1.41	12.3	15.0	-2.70
Donovan Mitchell	75	77	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	16	-20	13.8	14.5	-0.78	13.5	15.8	-2.27
Jared Butler	3	3	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	15	-18	17.0	13.9	3.13	17.3	14.0	3.29
Bojan Bogdanovic	61	63	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	16	-20	14.0	13.9	0.06	14.3	13.9	0.34
Royce O'Neale	67	68	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	16	-20	13.9	14.2	-0.33	13.6	15.1	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.57,0.62,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 76, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.41,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.77,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
PHI 71, NYK 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.93,0.95,1,1,1,1	92.8%
MIN 94, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	92.6%