NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	132		Excitement	7.3 [398]		MVP	Jerami Grant (DEN): +24.4%
San Antonio Spurs	126		Comeback	3.4 [459]		LVP	Jakob Poeltl (SAS): -6.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.13	0.15	0.03	14	67%	0.29	1	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.21	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.05	0.13	-0.02	17	69%	0.33	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0.20	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.2	0.17	0.09	0.06	19	71%	0.27	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Monte Morris	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.01	13	68%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Torrey Craig	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	8	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
PJ Dozier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	8	60%	0.11	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.17	0.03	0.09	10	83%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Drew Eubanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.00	8	75%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.00	18	57%	0.10	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Derrick White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.00	0.02	15	61%	0.11	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.01	7	64%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.00	10	70%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.04	11	58%	0.08	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.03
Quinndary Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	3.4	34.8	14.8	25.5	3.4	31.5	141.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +72.6%

SAS -15.1%

DEN +8.9%

SAS -23.7%

DEN +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.6	14.1	14.2	132.0	124.8	109.6
season	15.0	14.1		112.0	110.8
opponent	14.2	14.5		112.0	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	15.0	14.5	14.1	14.6
SAS	14.0	13.3	16.1	13.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerami Grant	72	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.43	2	4	-2	14.7	14.3	0.36	14.1	14.1	-0.09
PJ Dozier	52	54	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	6	-6	14.1	15.1	-0.97	14.2	14.0	0.23
Troy Daniels	28	29	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-4	14	15.0	14.4	0.58	15.6	13.5	2.07
Mason Plumlee	29	31	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	2	2	15.6	14.2	1.37	14.9	13.7	1.24
Monte Morris	74	74	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	7	-8	14.6	14.5	0.16	13.7	15.1	-1.41
Nikola Jokic	68	66	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.06	8	-2	10	14.6	14.4	0.21	14.1	14.0	0.08
Torrey Craig	64	64	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.26	-4	10	-14	14.5	14.7	-0.27	14.0	14.3	-0.30
Paul Millsap	35	35	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.06	-2	8	-10	14.7	14.5	0.21	13.9	14.2	-0.30

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	47	49	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.26	13	-19	32	13.3	14.8	-1.46	14.1	15.1	-1.02
Drew Eubanks	39	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.25	6	-12	18	13.7	14.3	-0.67	14.0	15.0	-0.98
Keldon Johnson	58	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.40	8	-14	22	12.9	15.6	-2.70	13.9	15.5	-1.55
Quinndary Weatherspoon	19	19	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-9	12	14.2	14.0	0.16	13.3	14.9	-1.56
DeMar DeRozan	67	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	1	-8	13.8	14.7	-0.90	15.2	13.2	2.09
Derrick White	71	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.15	-5	-1	-4	13.8	14.8	-0.98	14.6	14.5	0.07
Jakob Poeltl	52	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	6	-18	15.3	12.8	2.49	15.7	13.4	2.26
Rudy Gay	56	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-5	4	14.1	14.0	0.06	13.6	15.8	-2.21
Lonnie Walker IV	42	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	10	-26	15.4	13.1	2.31	15.5	14.0	1.49
Dejounte Murray	54	51	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.06	-19	13	-32	14.8	13.3	1.46	15.1	14.1	1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.68,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 100, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.42,0.36,0.2,0.13,0.25,0.11,0.09,0.02,0	93.4%
LAL 106, VAN 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.1,0,0	92.5%
ORL 103, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.47,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.43,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.04,0.01,0	92.5%