NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	6.4 [548]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +24.7%
New Orleans Pelicans	110		Comeback	1.2 [711]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -12.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.25	0.16	0.09	0.01	14	86%	0.33	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	6	44%	0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Jimmy Butler	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.14	-0.06	0.05	17	58%	0.03	0	0.00	14	86%	-0.01
Solomon Hill	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	83%	0.09	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.02	15	41%	-0.03	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Kendrick Nunn	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	10	41%	-0.05	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.11	-0.01	12	68%	0.24	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	13	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.04	-0.01	9	77%	0.14	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08,0.06,0.05	0.05	-0.17	0.15	-0.07	20	29%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Lonzo Ball	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	12	62%	0.13	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nicolo Melli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	9	41%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Frank Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	7	28%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	3.5	34.3	15.4	28.4	3.3	39.5	153.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +36.8%

NOP +2.3%

NOP +9.3%

MIA -1.1%

NOP +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOP	NBA	MIA	NOP	NBA
this game	13.4	14.9	14.2	102.0	107.8	109.6
season	14.7	13.4		111.7	109.9
opponent	14.2	14.5		111.4	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.2	13.1	13.2	14.0	13.4
NOP	14.5	13.5	15.0	16.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	23	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-5	4	14.0	13.2	0.88	13.5	15.2	-1.75
Andre Iguodala	56	54	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-9	12	12.8	14.1	-1.32	14.2	15.6	-1.46
Duncan Robinson	85	83	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.53	15	-21	36	13.3	13.7	-0.41	15.3	13.1	2.24
Solomon Hill	30	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.23	2	-8	10	13.3	13.4	-0.09	16.0	14.4	1.60
Goran Dragic	58	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-9	12	12.3	14.7	-2.36	14.0	16.1	-2.05
Jae Crowder	23	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	4	-14	14.5	13.0	1.44	12.2	15.7	-3.54
Derrick Jones Jr.	47	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	0	-6	13.3	13.4	-0.12	16.3	13.7	2.56
Kendrick Nunn	36	35	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.20	-20	14	-34	14.6	12.7	1.93	15.2	14.7	0.54
Jimmy Butler	80	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	1	-8	12.9	15.1	-2.20	15.0	14.4	0.57
Bam Adebayo	72	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.22	-9	3	-12	14.1	11.5	2.59	15.2	13.9	1.34

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Favors	51	50	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.14	12	-6	18	16.0	13.7	2.29	13.6	13.1	0.54
Lonzo Ball	77	76	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	2	2	15.4	13.4	2.00	12.7	15.4	-2.71
Brandon Ingram	61	63	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.23	5	1	4	16.0	13.3	2.68	13.2	13.6	-0.33
Jrue Holiday	78	79	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	4	-2	15.1	14.2	0.92	14.1	10.9	3.16
Zion Williamson	67	67	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.31	1	5	-4	15.1	14.5	0.55	14.1	11.9	2.29
Frank Jackson	37	36	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	-3	12	13.8	15.5	-1.67	12.6	13.8	-1.12
Josh Hart	61	61	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.16	-2	8	-10	13.8	16.4	-2.58	12.6	14.5	-1.88
E'Twaun Moore	27	26	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	2	2	13.1	15.5	-2.45	13.3	13.4	-0.13
Nicolo Melli	51	52	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.16	-5	11	-16	14.1	15.7	-1.59	13.6	13.1	0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.86,0.8,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 95, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.99,1	93.8%
NOH 94, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.84,1	93.5%
LAC 104, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.96,1	93.5%