NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	118		Excitement	7.1 [427]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (TOR): +48.0%
Toronto Raptors	119		Comeback	311.5 [11]		LVP	Malcolm Brogdon (IND): -26.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.18	0.11	-0.00	10	83%	0.29	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Justin Holiday	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.20	0.08	0.01	12	85%	0.27	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	4	100%	0.13	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	7	68%	0.15	5	-0.07	8	75%	0.01
Aaron Holiday	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	6	42%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	9	28%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.2	-0.04	-0.20	-0.05	14	43%	-0.16	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.26	0.09	-0.31	0.04	14	86%	0.17	6	-0.43	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.48	0.48	0.15	0.34	0.01	21	68%	0.56	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.15	0.08	0.02	21	68%	0.29	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Pascal Siakam	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.06	0.03	18	53%	0.14	1	-0.04	11	91%	0.02
Terence Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	9	61%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	70%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Patrick McCaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	10	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	25.8	12.8	27.4	2.4	32.9	129.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +13.0%

TOR +7.8%

IND -7.4%

TOR +36.9%

IND -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	TOR	NBA	IND	TOR	NBA
this game	15.8	13.1	14.2	118.0	119.0	109.6
season	14.4	14.0		108.7	109.9
opponent	14.5	14.4		104.2	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.6	14.6	16.6	16.1	15.8
TOR	14.4	14.2	10.5	13.3	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	47	47	0.74	-1.24	1.98	0.13	21	-22	43	14.9	16.5	-1.66	14.2	12.1	2.11
T.J. McConnell	35	33	0.48	-0.98	1.47	0.07	14	-15	29	14.9	16.2	-1.37	15.2	12.0	3.14
Goga Bitadze	6	5	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	4	-9	15.2	15.8	-0.62	10.4	13.2	-2.79
Myles Turner	49	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.19	-12	11	-23	16.3	15.2	1.09	12.5	13.6	-1.06
Jeremy Lamb	50	51	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	9	-19	16.5	15.0	1.50	12.6	13.5	-0.94
Justin Holiday	65	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.64	9	-10	19	15.4	16.4	-0.96	13.0	13.1	-0.10
Domantas Sabonis	80	78	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.47	-1	0	-1	15.6	16.1	-0.50	13.5	11.5	1.99
Malcolm Brogdon	70	72	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.55	-7	6	-13	16.1	15.0	1.02	12.5	14.5	-2.01
Victor Oladipo	54	54	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.53	-10	9	-19	16.2	15.2	1.03	11.8	14.5	-2.69
Aaron Holiday	44	44	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.74	-4	3	-7	15.6	15.9	-0.24	13.4	12.7	0.68

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	79	77	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.48	13	-12	25	12.6	14.6	-1.93	16.4	13.7	2.67
Pascal Siakam	83	82	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.44	14	-13	27	12.6	15.4	-2.85	16.3	13.4	2.88
Terence Davis	58	57	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.51	11	-10	21	12.7	13.5	-0.86	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Serge Ibaka	69	69	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.60	-8	9	-17	14.6	9.6	4.93	15.4	16.6	-1.20
Fred VanVleet	77	77	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.47	-4	5	-9	13.1	12.8	0.35	16.0	14.9	1.14
Patrick McCaw	33	33	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	-1	3	13.6	12.8	0.78	15.2	16.0	-0.85
OG Anunoby	57	60	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.04	-2	3	-5	13.2	12.9	0.33	15.3	16.4	-1.08
Chris Boucher	16	17	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	4	-7	10.3	13.6	-3.26	16.3	15.6	0.66
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	28	28	-0.48	0.98	-1.47	0.04	-18	19	-37	13.0	13.1	-0.02	14.4	16.3	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.27,0.26,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.43,0.25,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.27,0.04,0,0.01,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.09,1	88.6%
CLE 92, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.26,1	88.5%
SAC 112, NOP 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.23,0.16,1	88.1%