NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	115		Excitement	8.1 [265]		MVP	Doug McDermott (IND): +57.5%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	7.1 [168]		LVP	Malik Beasley (DEN): -17.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0.57	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.41,0.36,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.57	0.28	0.29	0.00	10	120%	0.57	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.13	-0.01	16	63%	0.29	5	-0.13	3	33%	-0.02
Justin Holiday	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.05	-0.00	8	70%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
T.J. Warren	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	-0.02	0.03	13	65%	0.09	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Goga Bitadze	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07	0.06	-0.09	0.03	17	58%	0.00	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Myles Turner	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	7	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.01	9	67%	0.22	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.16	0.01	-0.01	16	68%	0.21	1	-0.02	12	67%	-0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.01	9	45%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	72%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.14
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	73%	0.09	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.04
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	17	43%	-0.03	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	7	14%	-0.11	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	28.9	15.0	25.3	2.5	36.2	133.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +51.4%

DEN -3.1%

IND +11.3%

DEN -13.3%

IND +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	14.4	14.2	121.1	109.2	109.6
season	14.4	15.0		108.7	112.0
opponent	14.5	14.4		110.7	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.0	17.0	14.8	14.0	15.4
DEN	12.8	14.4	14.6	16.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Domantas Sabonis	79	81	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.29	12	-4	16	15.7	13.7	2.00	15.0	12.1	2.89
Malcolm Brogdon	71	72	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.29	11	-3	14	15.3	15.6	-0.29	14.5	14.3	0.24
T.J. McConnell	42	45	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.24	7	1	6	15.4	15.4	0.03	15.5	13.5	2.01
T.J. Warren	66	66	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.30	-2	10	-12	16.0	14.1	1.83	14.4	14.6	-0.26
Myles Turner	38	39	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.18	-1	9	-10	15.8	15.2	0.59	14.2	14.6	-0.41
Justin Holiday	53	57	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.16	4	4	0	13.6	17.6	-4.00	13.5	15.8	-2.37
Aaron Holiday	27	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	9	-10	15.1	15.5	-0.37	14.3	14.5	-0.18
Goga Bitadze	13	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.05	-4	12	-16	15.7	15.4	0.33	12.8	14.7	-1.85
Jeremy Lamb	44	45	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.05	-6	14	-20	16.5	14.5	1.99	14.2	14.7	-0.46

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	49	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.06	-4	-4	0	14.7	14.2	0.41	14.0	16.7	-2.73
Juancho Hernangomez	29	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-8	8	14.6	14.4	0.15	14.7	15.7	-0.94
Monte Morris	55	52	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-9	10	15.6	13.0	2.62	16.8	13.7	3.09
Malik Beasley	31	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-2	-4	14.1	14.6	-0.52	13.6	16.2	-2.56
PJ Dozier	37	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-4	0	13.8	14.9	-1.07	14.4	16.1	-1.65
Nikola Jokic	63	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.22	-2	-6	4	14.7	13.9	0.83	15.9	14.5	1.46
Will Barton	72	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-6	4	14.2	15.2	-0.96	15.8	14.3	1.44
Mason Plumlee	38	39	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.16	-9	1	-10	13.4	15.1	-1.68	14.3	16.2	-1.91
Jerami Grant	67	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	0	-8	14.6	14.2	0.37	15.7	14.8	0.94
Torrey Craig	49	49	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	-2	-4	14.2	14.7	-0.41	16.7	14.0	2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.67,0.85,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.47,0.28,0.24,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 115, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.53,0.51,0.66,0.39,0.28,0.06,0.15,0	92.3%
LAL 115, GSW 110	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.72,0.79,0.71,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.47,0.59,0.33,0.38,0.22,0.24,0.08,0	92.2%
BOS 99, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.15,0	91.9%