NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	6.5 [528]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): +24.6%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	2.8 [570]		LVP	Bryn Forbes (SAS): -13.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.23	0.05	0.03	14	86%	0.29	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Patty Mills	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.05	0.01	15	70%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	7	55%	0.09	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.04	0.04	12	50%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	8	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dejounte Murray	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	6	33%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	-0.13	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	13	42%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.21	0.21	0.26	-0.01	0.04	18	87%	0.29	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	13	65%	0.18	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.01	10	55%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	9	39%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	15	41%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	11	41%	0.02	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.06
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.8	23.2	14.5	29.8	1.8	34.5	127.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +67.6%

SAS -17.5%

MIA +7.9%

SAS -6.6%

SAS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.7	15.6	14.2	106.4	110.4	109.6
season	14.1	14.7		110.8	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.2		108.9	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	13.8	17.2	12.2	14.7
MIA	15.9	15.0	15.5	16.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dejounte Murray	46	48	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.14	7	-13	20	16.3	13.2	3.05	16.5	14.6	1.92
Lonnie Walker IV	18	17	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-4	2	13.9	14.9	-1.03	14.1	15.9	-1.85
LaMarcus Aldridge	64	67	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-9	12	14.9	14.4	0.43	16.0	14.6	1.48
DeMar DeRozan	67	70	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-9	12	14.9	14.4	0.44	16.1	14.3	1.75
Patty Mills	50	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-4	2	12.7	17.1	-4.41	14.7	16.6	-1.83
Rudy Gay	39	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-2	-2	14.2	15.1	-0.93	15.2	15.8	-0.59
Trey Lyles	52	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-2	-2	15.7	13.6	2.08	16.4	14.7	1.73
Marco Belinelli	9	9	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	1	-8	15.4	14.6	0.80	14.8	15.7	-0.89
Bryn Forbes	47	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-4	2	16.3	13.1	3.23	15.9	15.2	0.68
Jakob Poeltl	30	29	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-9	3	-12	14.4	14.9	-0.43	14.6	16.0	-1.48
Derrick White	48	48	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	7	-20	13.2	16.3	-3.05	14.6	16.5	-1.92

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	49	49	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-8	22	15.7	15.5	0.23	14.7	14.8	-0.15
Duncan Robinson	77	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.34	5	1	4	15.9	14.2	1.71	15.1	13.3	1.83
Meyers Leonard	57	55	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.32	5	1	4	15.7	15.5	0.21	14.5	15.1	-0.65
Derrick Jones Jr.	51	49	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	-1	8	15.1	16.1	-1.04	14.5	15.0	-0.45
James Johnson	29	29	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	-3	12	15.1	15.8	-0.69	14.3	14.9	-0.65
Bam Adebayo	70	68	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	6	-6	15.8	15.1	0.64	15.0	14.0	1.00
Jimmy Butler	67	65	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.21	-3	9	-12	15.8	15.1	0.69	14.9	14.3	0.65
Kendrick Nunn	62	61	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.17	-5	11	-16	15.5	15.7	-0.19	14.8	14.6	0.13
Kelly Olynyk	18	19	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	8	-10	14.5	15.8	-1.33	13.6	15.0	-1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.57,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 96, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.97,1,1,1	94.4%
SAC 104, DAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.86,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.85,0.94,0.85,1	93.9%
HOU 99, LAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.97,0.91,0.93,1,1,1	93.8%