NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	8.8 [203]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +46.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	115		Comeback	12.4 [194]		LVP	CJ McCollum (POR): -16.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Torrey Craig	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.08	-0.00	7	81%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gary Harris	0.11	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	12	67%	0.11	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Trey Lyles	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	12	60%	0.11	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Juancho Hernangomez	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	47%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Tyler Lydon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	12	42%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	14	48%	0.02	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.05
Will Barton	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.02	14	31%	-0.10	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.08
Jarred Vanderbilt	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.47,0.47,0.47	0.47	0.18	0.28	-0.00	19	67%	0.48	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.07
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.08	0.02	13	70%	0.23	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.03
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.00	7	65%	0.17	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Jake Layman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.04
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	9	61%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.19,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	0.00	13	39%	-0.00	3	-0.16	2	50%	-0.03
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	13	32%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.5	26.3	14.8	25.2	2.5	37.2	132.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +7.5%

POR +33.0%

POR +25.7%

DEN -16.9%

POR +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	13.6	14.4	14.3	104.9	111.7	109.3
season	14.8	14.9		112.0	112.6
opponent	13.9	14.6		109.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	15.2	14.3	11.7	13.6
POR	14.5	12.5	15.1	15.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarred Vanderbilt	29	27	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-9	11	12.2	14.1	-1.87	14.7	14.3	0.44
Tyler Lydon	8	7	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-7	7	16.6	13.3	3.30	12.9	14.5	-1.63
Gary Harris	51	52	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-7	7	14.0	13.2	0.75	13.7	15.1	-1.35
Monte Morris	50	51	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-6	5	14.0	13.2	0.89	14.2	14.6	-0.40
Will Barton	47	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-4	1	14.3	13.0	1.35	13.7	14.9	-1.18
Trey Lyles	56	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-4	1	13.9	13.2	0.76	14.6	14.1	0.45
Juancho Hernangomez	52	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-3	-1	12.8	14.4	-1.53	14.6	14.2	0.40
Mason Plumlee	65	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	14.3	12.3	2.05	14.4	14.3	0.05
Isaiah Thomas	53	51	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	13.2	14.0	-0.89	14.7	14.1	0.61
Malik Beasley	52	51	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.28	-7	0	-7	13.2	14.0	-0.75	15.1	13.7	1.35
Torrey Craig	52	51	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	0	-7	12.6	14.5	-1.91	14.5	14.3	0.14

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	80	81	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.35	11	-4	15	14.2	15.0	-0.74	13.6	13.7	-0.13
Rodney Hood	57	57	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-1	9	14.4	14.4	-0.06	13.0	14.3	-1.38
Al-Farouq Aminu	57	57	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	0	7	14.2	14.7	-0.49	13.8	13.3	0.42
CJ McCollum	53	50	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-2	11	14.5	14.3	0.15	14.4	12.8	1.67
Enes Kanter	59	57	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.31	6	1	5	14.3	14.5	-0.29	14.1	13.0	1.13
Evan Turner	46	48	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	4	-1	14.6	14.2	0.42	13.0	14.1	-1.13
Maurice Harkless	46	45	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	7	-7	14.3	14.5	-0.21	13.8	13.4	0.39
Zach Collins	40	42	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	8	-9	14.5	14.3	0.28	13.2	13.8	-0.58
Jake Layman	26	27	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.03	-4	11	-15	14.4	14.4	0.01	13.6	13.6	0.01
Seth Curry	51	51	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.13	-4	11	-15	14.7	14.0	0.73	13.4	13.8	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.18,0.1,0.37,0.86,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.34,0.17,0.31,0.64,0.77,0.9,1	91.3%
SAC 100, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.55,0.9,0.99,1	91.3%
DAL 121, LAC 125	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.78,0.62,0.43,0.48,0.54,0.41,0.4,0.22,0.46,0.63,0.85,1,1	90.8%