NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	119		Excitement	9.1 [168]		MVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): +53.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	115		Comeback	3.6 [274]		LVP	Dario Saric (MIN): -12.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Doncic	0.53	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.53	0.06	0.48	0.01	23	52%	0.71	1	-0.18	10	70%	-0.01
Jalen Brunson	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.10	0.15	-0.00	4	112%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.06	0.00	8	88%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.03	0.01	4	108%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
J.J. Barea	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	14	55%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	19	53%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	7	47%	0.02	3	-0.08	3	0%	-0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	10	20%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.37,0.35	0.35	0.18	0.21	0.03	21	64%	0.35	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.17	0.17	-0.01	0.18	-0.00	12	42%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.06	-0.02	16	62%	0.22	2	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	17	47%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.10	0.01	8	83%	0.18	2	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff Teague	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	14	43%	0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.5	27.0	14.7	27.3	2.4	33.4	132.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.8%

DAL +12.5%

MIN -28.2%

DAL +29.8%

DAL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIN	NBA	DAL	MIN	NBA
this game	15.3	13.7	14.3	119.0	116.2	109.3
season	14.7	14.4		108.5	110.2
opponent	14.0	14.1		111.8	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.2	15.2	16.7	15.0	15.3
MIN	14.6	13.0	12.6	14.4	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorian Finney-Smith	41	42	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.10	20	-16	36	13.7	16.4	-2.75	15.0	12.7	2.33
Luka Doncic	77	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	-1	6	14.5	18.0	-3.48	13.3	14.6	-1.26
J.J. Barea	44	44	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-11	26	14.8	15.7	-0.87	14.3	13.1	1.23
Dwight Powell	38	38	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	-11	26	13.8	16.2	-2.36	15.1	12.7	2.39
Harrison Barnes	69	68	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.46	-7	11	-18	16.0	13.7	2.32	13.1	14.9	-1.77
Dirk Nowitzki	27	27	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.07	8	-4	12	14.1	15.7	-1.60	14.8	13.2	1.59
Maxi Kleber	64	62	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.42	-11	15	-26	15.8	14.3	1.57	12.7	15.2	-2.45
Jalen Brunson	33	34	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	8	-12	15.7	15.1	0.58	13.4	13.8	-0.46
DeAndre Jordan	62	60	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.40	-13	17	-30	16.2	13.8	2.36	12.8	14.9	-2.09
Wesley Matthews	45	46	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.10	-8	12	-20	17.1	13.8	3.33	13.7	13.6	0.15

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl-Anthony Towns	62	63	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.35	14	-18	32	13.4	14.0	-0.59	15.5	14.9	0.66
Taj Gibson	63	63	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.27	11	-15	26	13.1	14.6	-1.41	16.1	13.9	2.12
Derrick Rose	57	58	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-5	6	13.3	14.1	-0.80	14.8	16.0	-1.16
Jeff Teague	63	64	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.39	10	-14	24	13.0	14.7	-1.67	16.1	13.8	2.35
Anthony Tolliver	11	11	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	5	-14	14.5	13.5	1.00	15.5	15.2	0.30
Josh Okogie	47	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.40	3	-7	10	14.4	12.9	1.50	15.4	15.2	0.17
Andrew Wiggins	80	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-2	0	13.1	16.2	-3.10	15.6	13.7	1.90
Tyus Jones	39	39	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.01	-15	11	-26	15.2	12.7	2.47	13.7	16.3	-2.56
Gorgui Dieng	35	35	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	11	-26	14.1	13.4	0.75	14.9	15.5	-0.56
Dario Saric	38	39	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.11	-18	14	-32	14.4	13.2	1.24	13.9	16.1	-2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.28,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.3,0.32,0.22,0.38,0.25,0.29,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.19,0.34,0.32,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 101, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.42,0	91.9%
NYK 97, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.19,0.37,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.42,0	90.7%
GSW 94, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.31,0.21,0.43,0.27,0	89.8%