NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	9.8 [105]		MVP	Kyle Kuzma (LAL): +35.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	108		Comeback	5.0 [387]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -36.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justise Winslow	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27	0.16	0.11	0.00	20	70%	0.33	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.12,0.19,0.19	0.01	0.19	0.00	10	45%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rodney McGruder	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	10	65%	0.10	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	9	39%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	11	50%	0.04	4	-0.22	2	0%	-0.04
Dwyane Wade	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.36	-0.11	-0.26	-0.00	19	36%	-0.30	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.17	0.20	0.01	22	72%	0.42	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.27	0.27	0.12	0.14	-0.00	19	61%	0.33	2	-0.07	8	50%	-0.05
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.07	0.00	4	60%	0.14	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Svi Mykhailiuk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	11	42%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	0.00	7	22%	-0.09	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Josh Hart	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.23	-0.23	-0.02	-0.22	-0.00	9	45%	-0.05	1	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.7	24.2	14.6	23.6	2.6	34.2	128.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +39.1%

MIA -1.9%

LAL +2.8%

LAL +10.1%

MIA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	14.8	13.8	14.3	104.0	108.0	109.3
season	14.8	13.5		106.3	107.2
opponent	14.2	14.3		108.7	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	14.1	14.2	16.9	14.8
LAL	11.6	14.2	13.5	16.6	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	64	63	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.26	9	-12	21	14.7	15.0	-0.31	14.2	13.2	1.05
Derrick Jones Jr.	60	58	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.38	11	-14	25	14.3	15.6	-1.28	15.3	11.8	3.56
Kelly Olynyk	46	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-8	13	14.7	14.9	-0.24	14.8	13.0	1.85
Goran Dragic	41	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	6	-15	14.6	14.9	-0.32	12.2	14.9	-2.67
James Johnson	38	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	9	-21	15.4	14.5	0.91	12.0	15.0	-2.98
Dwyane Wade	66	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.48	6	-9	15	14.2	15.9	-1.70	14.4	12.9	1.51
Justise Winslow	75	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-8	13	15.0	14.1	0.92	14.6	11.6	3.00
Bam Adebayo	63	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	7	-17	15.2	14.2	1.03	13.3	14.7	-1.42
Rodney McGruder	52	53	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.17	-20	17	-37	15.3	14.2	1.08	12.3	15.6	-3.21

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonzo Ball	78	80	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.40	18	-15	33	13.0	16.8	-3.81	14.9	14.2	0.71
LeBron James	77	78	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.38	18	-15	33	13.5	15.1	-1.66	15.8	11.4	4.42
Kyle Kuzma	83	84	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.35	16	-13	29	13.3	16.4	-3.02	15.2	12.6	2.59
Josh Hart	72	74	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-5	13	14.0	13.4	0.68	15.3	13.6	1.70
JaVale McGee	32	35	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.09	10	-7	17	11.7	14.8	-3.09	14.4	15.0	-0.66
Lance Stephenson	33	33	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.21	-8	11	-19	15.1	13.3	1.81	13.6	15.4	-1.78
Tyson Chandler	51	50	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.27	-15	18	-33	15.1	12.6	2.51	14.1	15.5	-1.39
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	50	47	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.11	-14	17	-31	14.7	13.0	1.66	14.2	15.4	-1.18
Svi Mykhailiuk	24	24	-0.41	0.91	-1.33	0.11	-18	21	-39	15.8	13.2	2.55	13.1	15.3	-2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.4,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.22,0.29,0.6,0.76,0.72,0.76,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.78,0.74,1	90.0%
MIN 87, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.78,0.74,1	89.8%
SAC 78, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.73,1	89.7%