NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	94		Excitement	4.2 [1013]		MVP	Chris Paul (HOU): +42.8%
Houston Rockets	96		Comeback	1.1 [1136]		LVP	CJ McCollum (POR): -16.7%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Connaughton	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.22	0.07	0.20	0.05	6	69%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Jake Layman	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	83%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wade Baldwin IV	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	10	70%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Georgios Papagiannis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Swanigan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	4	77%	0.03	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	0.00	0.03	12	52%	0.00	2	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03
Zach Collins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	10%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shabazz Napier	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	0.03	9	38%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17	-0.23	-0.00	-0.07	25	32%	-0.09	6	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.43	0.43	0.15	0.36	0.08	19	67%	0.46	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	5	56%	0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.04	-0.06	13	67%	0.09	8	-0.07	10	70%	-0.10
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	30%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	9	33%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.7	29.0	14.0	27.0	2.0	32.9	131.5
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +42.1%

HOU +0.3%

POR -2.1%

HOU +4.1%

HOU +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	HOU	NBA	POR	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	15.9	14.7	96.9	100.0	107.5
season	15.2	14.6		107.8	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.3		105.6	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.7	13.1	14.3	12.0	14.0
HOU	15.2	15.7	16.4	16.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Georgios Papagiannis	7	9	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.27	15	-17	32	7.3	14.5	-7.21	17.3	15.7	1.61
Caleb Swanigan	39	38	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.64	22	-24	46	11.4	15.7	-4.30	15.9	15.9	0.03
Jake Layman	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.44	15	-17	32	6.2	14.8	-8.55	16.2	15.8	0.36
Meyers Leonard	7	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	4	-10	15.3	13.9	1.41	15.3	15.9	-0.58
Pat Connaughton	39	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.44	9	-11	20	12.6	14.9	-2.28	15.5	16.1	-0.61
Wade Baldwin IV	66	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.60	14	-16	30	13.2	15.7	-2.54	15.9	15.8	0.05
Evan Turner	51	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	5	-12	13.9	14.1	-0.16	16.4	15.2	1.15
Zach Collins	32	28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.10	-13	11	-24	16.2	12.9	3.25	14.5	16.4	-1.94
Shabazz Napier	57	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	7	-16	15.4	11.9	3.54	16.3	15.4	0.89
Al-Farouq Aminu	47	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.09	-14	12	-26	15.6	12.5	3.05	15.9	15.8	0.12
Jusuf Nurkic	64	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.03	-15	13	-28	14.8	12.4	2.45	16.2	15.2	1.05
CJ McCollum	67	65	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.03	-21	19	-40	14.6	12.7	1.85	15.3	17.0	-1.71

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Green	56	56	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.73	-7	9	-16	15.4	16.6	-1.24	13.2	15.1	-1.89
James Harden	69	67	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-5	12	16.1	15.3	0.86	14.3	13.4	0.89
Clint Capela	61	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	-10	22	16.2	15.3	0.84	14.4	13.2	1.17
Luc Mbah a Moute	49	50	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	-7	16	15.3	16.5	-1.25	14.9	13.0	1.94
Trevor Ariza	54	54	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.34	-2	4	-6	16.4	15.1	1.30	13.9	14.1	-0.25
Chris Paul	60	65	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	1	0	16.1	15.6	0.51	13.5	14.9	-1.34
Tarik Black	33	33	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.38	-10	12	-22	15.3	16.2	-0.87	12.6	14.7	-2.04
Joe Johnson	35	37	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.22	-5	7	-12	15.4	16.2	-0.79	14.0	14.0	0.03
PJ Tucker	63	61	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.08	5	-3	8	16.2	15.3	0.83	14.5	13.1	1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.96,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 96, LAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
CHI 84, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
BOS 84, CLE 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%