NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	127		Excitement	10.9 [34]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +80.2%
Toronto Raptors	131		Comeback	11.7 [167]		LVP	Serge Ibaka (TOR): -35.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Bledsoe	0.44	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.27,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.42,0.44	0.14	0.36	0.06	15	81%	0.56	5	-0.13	6	100%	0.13
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.31	0.12	0.18	-0.01	18	58%	0.31	0	0.00	9	78%	0.00
Thon Maker	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	8	76%	0.18	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.04
Sean Kilpatrick	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.01	0.00	-0.04	-0.03	13	58%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	17	47%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Tony Snell	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.11	-0.00	5	60%	0.12	1	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.44,0.61,0.66,0.6,0.78,0.78,0.8	0.80	0.35	0.45	-0.01	29	73%	0.85	2	-0.05	13	100%	0.19
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.13	0.20	0.01	13	72%	0.38	3	-0.07	10	70%	0.02
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.05	0.19	0.01	7	69%	0.28	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	0.00	3	75%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.08,-0.15,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.35	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.00	19	28%	-0.30	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	26.0	14.5	28.2	1.8	35.0	2.5	15.3	150.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	3.2	17.5	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +18.0%

TOR +7.4%

TOR +12.7%

TOR +14.2%

MIL -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	14.9	14.7	114.4	119.1	107.5
season	14.3	14.6		108.5	112.7
opponent	14.8	15.4		105.9	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	14.2	13.6	12.7	15.0	14.5	13.9
TOR	14.6	13.1	15.5	17.0	14.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matthew Dellavedova	46	46	0.24	-0.74	0.97	-0.03	9	-13	22	15.1	13.0	2.08	15.8	14.2	1.53
Sean Kilpatrick	19	20	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-8	12	14.8	13.7	1.08	15.2	14.8	0.38
Jason Terry	10	9	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-7	10	17.4	13.5	3.86	16.1	14.8	1.33
Thon Maker	34	35	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.12	6	-10	16	15.9	13.0	2.87	15.7	14.5	1.12
Malcolm Brogdon	77	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.44	9	-13	22	14.6	12.3	2.30	16.0	12.5	3.46
John Henson	58	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	5	-14	13.0	14.9	-1.94	14.2	15.7	-1.48
Tony Snell	42	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	11	-26	12.6	14.7	-2.05	13.1	16.0	-2.91
Giannis Antetokounmpo	90	88	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.34	-6	2	-8	13.2	17.0	-3.83	14.9	15.0	-0.08
Khris Middleton	92	91	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	4	-12	14.0	13.6	0.38	14.5	16.6	-2.04
Eric Bledsoe	76	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.34	-9	5	-14	13.0	15.9	-2.91	14.8	15.1	-0.33

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
OG Anunoby	75	77	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.36	16	-12	28	14.2	16.3	-2.13	13.1	15.6	-2.45
Kyle Lowry	88	88	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.34	11	-7	18	14.6	16.0	-1.44	13.5	15.4	-1.95
DeMar DeRozan	91	93	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-5	14	14.9	15.1	-0.20	13.3	16.9	-3.58
Serge Ibaka	81	82	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	-4	12	14.8	15.2	-0.38	13.1	16.1	-2.99
Jonas Valanciunas	39	38	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.04	7	-3	10	13.5	15.6	-2.10	11.7	15.0	-3.32
Delon Wright	38	38	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.09	2	2	0	14.3	15.2	-0.88	15.8	12.9	2.93
Fred VanVleet	43	44	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.30	-6	10	-16	15.7	14.4	1.25	15.0	13.2	1.80
Jakob Poeltl	34	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.16	-7	11	-18	15.4	14.7	0.71	16.0	13.1	2.92
Pascal Siakam	29	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.13	-8	12	-20	16.6	14.3	2.26	15.6	13.2	2.43
CJ Miles	32	32	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	0.02	-12	16	-28	16.9	14.1	2.84	15.5	13.2	2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.61,0.53,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.53,0.64,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.31,0.15,0.16,0.46,0.47,0.72,0.76,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 119, SEA 129	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.11,0.1,0.54,0.61,0.46,0.84,1,1	90.5%
DET 91, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.66,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.69,0.56,0.56,0.71,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.63,0.71,0.59,0.6,0.45,0.21,0.32,0.04,0.54,0.67,0.84,0.97,1,1	89.1%
POR 96, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.35,0.53,0.4,0.54,0.32,0.08,0.46,0.45,0.64,0.68,0.98,1	89.1%