NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	100		Excitement	6.7 [517]		MVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): +23.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	1.5 [790]		LVP	Anthony Tolliver (DET): -13.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.15	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.04	0.04	16	67%	0.18	1	-0.04	8	37%	-0.07
Tobias Harris	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14	0.12	0.04	0.02	14	72%	0.22	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Avery Bradley	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.00	13	59%	0.12	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Ish Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Eric Moreland	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Reggie Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	14	44%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	8	11%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	8	19%	-0.13	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23	0.23	0.17	0.06	-0.00	10	84%	0.28	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.06
Rashad Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.07	-0.02	6	69%	0.17	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	10	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	8	62%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	21	47%	0.03	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.04
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	16	57%	0.09	5	-0.13	12	67%	-0.03
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	26.9	15.7	28.3	1.8	37.3	135.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +42.0%

MIL +7.7%

DET -0.8%

DET -0.7%

MIL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	15.0	14.7	107.5	113.0	107.5
season	14.9	14.3		106.4	108.5
opponent	15.4	14.7		108.9	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.5	14.6	16.5	16.0	16.1
MIL	15.1	14.8	17.8	12.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Bradley	65	64	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.32	15	-19	34	15.4	17.7	-2.25	14.9	15.3	-0.38
Andre Drummond	69	71	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.24	9	-13	22	16.5	15.0	1.55	15.1	14.8	0.34
Reggie Jackson	64	62	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.29	9	-13	22	16.2	15.9	0.31	14.8	15.4	-0.61
Stanley Johnson	67	65	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-8	12	16.0	16.3	-0.28	15.3	14.3	1.08
Tobias Harris	75	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-3	2	16.1	16.0	0.13	15.1	14.6	0.56
Ish Smith	29	30	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.10	-13	9	-22	15.9	16.2	-0.31	15.4	14.8	0.61
Eric Moreland	24	21	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	9	-22	15.0	16.5	-1.55	14.8	15.1	-0.34
Luke Kennard	32	32	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	12	-28	16.9	15.7	1.17	15.6	14.7	0.83
Anthony Tolliver	40	39	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.11	-14	10	-24	16.7	15.7	1.00	14.1	15.7	-1.68

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad Vaughn	31	33	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.11	18	-14	32	15.2	15.0	0.21	17.5	15.3	2.18
Giannis Antetokounmpo	73	72	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	0	4	15.0	15.1	-0.04	16.3	15.5	0.82
Thon Maker	45	43	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	0	4	15.0	15.0	0.00	16.4	15.8	0.58
Malcolm Brogdon	51	50	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	2	0	14.4	15.9	-1.50	15.7	16.6	-0.88
DeAndre Liggins	45	46	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.18	9	-5	14	14.7	15.3	-0.56	16.3	15.9	0.39
Khris Middleton	71	73	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.27	-7	11	-18	15.0	15.2	-0.28	15.3	19.2	-3.94
John Henson	44	47	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	2	0	16.0	14.1	1.87	16.5	15.7	0.77
Tony Snell	39	40	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	6	-8	15.5	14.7	0.85	16.0	16.2	-0.23
Eric Bledsoe	61	61	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.24	-10	14	-24	14.8	15.5	-0.70	15.9	16.5	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 99, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
POR 73, MEM 86	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.64,0.48,0.42,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.66,0.72,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
TOR 90, NJN 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%