NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	98		Excitement	6.9 [478]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +19.4%
Houston Rockets	90		Comeback	18.1 [33]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -25.4%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.21,0.18,0.19	0.03	0.19	0.03	10	59%	0.25	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.03
James Ennis III	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	8	61%	0.16	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.02
Jarell Martin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	9	61%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Marc Gasol	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.07	-0.03	0.02	15	65%	0.13	4	-0.11	10	100%	0.06
Tyreke Evans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	33%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Andrew Harrison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chandler Parsons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Brandan Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dillon Brooks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	-0.00	-0.06	20	57%	0.19	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Clint Capela	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.06	0.01	9	78%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	6	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Demetrius Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	5	17%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	6	25%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.23,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.13	0.01	20	46%	0.05	7	-0.31	8	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	29.9	14.0	29.3	2.4	38.3	142.5
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +7.9%

MEM +20.4%

HOU -15.3%

MEM +23.6%

MEM +13.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	HOU	NBA	MEM	HOU	NBA
this game	15.8	15.0	14.7	104.3	96.8	107.5
season	15.4	14.6		103.4	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.6		105.6	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.9	13.8	17.9	15.8	15.8
HOU	13.4	15.6	14.2	17.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	73	74	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.32	17	-9	26	15.9	15.3	0.66	14.5	17.1	-2.65
Mario Chalmers	50	48	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.25	19	-11	30	14.9	16.9	-2.00	16.1	13.8	2.32
Mike Conley	53	56	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.47	6	2	4	16.4	15.0	1.42	14.6	15.5	-0.90
James Ennis III	72	71	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-2	12	16.8	12.5	4.25	14.6	16.3	-1.73
Tyreke Evans	46	44	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.27	11	-3	14	14.1	17.4	-3.31	16.4	13.8	2.59
Chandler Parsons	33	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.06	0	8	-8	14.5	16.5	-2.07	14.9	15.0	-0.14
Dillon Brooks	44	41	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.22	5	3	2	14.5	17.0	-2.48	15.0	15.0	0.09
Jarell Martin	39	41	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.04	-6	14	-20	17.2	14.8	2.41	14.4	15.5	-1.09
Brandan Wright	21	19	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	-0.05	-9	17	-26	15.3	15.9	-0.66	17.1	14.5	2.65
Andrew Harrison	39	39	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.04	-13	21	-34	17.5	14.6	2.97	14.0	15.7	-1.72

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	58	59	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.23	12	-20	32	15.1	14.8	0.32	17.1	13.5	3.59
Nene	33	32	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.07	-2	-6	4	14.1	15.5	-1.36	13.7	16.9	-3.20
Luc Mbah a Moute	57	56	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.25	-10	2	-12	15.8	13.7	2.04	14.4	17.9	-3.52
Demetrius Jackson	7	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-4	0	16.7	14.9	1.85	9.9	16.3	-6.47
Eric Gordon	60	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.39	9	-17	26	14.6	15.8	-1.22	17.0	13.1	3.95
Clint Capela	48	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-8	8	15.4	14.6	0.86	16.9	14.7	2.16
Trevor Ariza	77	77	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.24	-15	7	-22	14.8	16.0	-1.21	16.1	14.4	1.76
PJ Tucker	55	56	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.29	-16	8	-24	15.5	14.3	1.11	15.2	16.7	-1.49
James Harden	70	69	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.36	-14	6	-20	14.5	16.7	-2.20	15.7	16.0	-0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.76,0.55,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 106, NYK 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.82,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.45,0.22,0.02,0	92.0%
POR 95, LAL 91	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.71,0.71,0.22,0.26,0	91.8%
CHA 104, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.62,0.46,0.15,0.16,0	91.5%