NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	108		Excitement	8.0 [259]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +60.8%
Detroit Pistons	114		Comeback	42.1 [66]		LVP	Ish Smith (DET): -18.8%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0.53	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.33,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53	0.24	0.34	0.05	19	72%	0.53	0	0.00	9	100%	0.06
Marvin Williams	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Jeremy Lamb	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.06	0.01	9	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Roberts	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Tobey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	18	44%	-0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Nicolas Batum	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	-0.01	17	46%	-0.03	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Marco Belinelli	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.12	-0.03	7	29%	-0.13	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.15,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61	0.61	0.18	0.48	0.06	25	61%	0.61	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.15	-0.02	0.01	17	68%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	17	46%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	14	36%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	12	19%	-0.14	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	29.3	16.4	22.6	1.8	31.0	2.4	11.5	138.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +49.2%

CHA -21.4%

DET +20.1%

CHA -0.6%

DET +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	DET	NBA	CHA	DET	NBA
this game	15.9	13.7	14.8	100.9	105.6	107.7
season	15.1	15.0		107.9	105.0
opponent	15.1	14.8		106.4	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHA	16.8	15.1	14.4	19.1	12.8	15.9
DET	13.9	13.1	15.0	11.7	15.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Lamb	35	35	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.15	-3	-3	0	16.9	15.5	1.46	12.5	14.2	-1.78
Mike Tobey	29	28	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-1	-4	16.7	15.6	1.08	12.0	14.2	-2.29
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	76	76	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.32	9	-15	24	15.7	16.6	-0.96	14.8	10.9	3.95
Brian Roberts	24	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.19	-10	4	-14	16.3	15.8	0.46	11.0	14.5	-3.46
Marco Belinelli	47	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.10	-2	-4	2	15.9	16.0	-0.07	11.8	15.2	-3.44
Kemba Walker	83	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-10	14	15.8	16.3	-0.46	14.5	11.0	3.46
Frank Kaminsky	78	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-5	4	15.6	16.7	-1.08	14.2	12.0	2.29
Nicolas Batum	81	82	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.43	-6	0	-6	15.7	16.5	-0.80	14.1	12.3	1.73
Marvin Williams	82	82	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.27	-16	10	-26	16.0	15.8	0.23	13.8	13.2	0.56

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	67	65	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.30	20	-14	34	13.1	14.6	-1.57	16.5	15.0	1.46
Tobias Harris	75	75	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.27	19	-13	32	12.7	15.8	-3.07	16.4	14.7	1.69
Marcus Morris	76	78	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	1	4	13.9	13.0	0.89	15.3	17.7	-2.36
Jon Leuer	84	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.54	-2	8	-10	14.4	11.0	3.36	15.7	16.7	-1.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	85	86	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.45	-3	9	-12	14.2	11.8	2.38	15.6	17.1	-1.50
Reggie Bullock	16	14	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.09	11	-5	16	10.4	14.2	-3.78	19.4	15.4	4.02
Aron Baynes	11	10	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.17	8	-2	10	10.5	14.0	-3.46	16.5	15.9	0.62
Stanley Johnson	34	32	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.14	6	0	6	12.2	14.3	-2.08	16.6	15.6	0.98
Reggie Jackson	41	42	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.02	-14	20	-34	14.6	13.1	1.57	15.0	16.5	-1.46
Andre Drummond	51	50	-0.50	1.00	-1.51	0.08	-20	26	-46	15.2	12.3	2.92	15.5	16.3	-0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.28,0.17,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.15,0.33,0.27,0.54,0.61,0.85,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 105, DAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.15,0.28,0.54,0.61,0.81,0.9,0.98,1	90.9%
ATL 104, PHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.18,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.31,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.46,0.53,0.84,0.85,0.73,1	90.1%
MIL 115, CHI 117	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.72,0.46,0.31,0.63,0.84,0.84,1	89.7%