NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	91		Excitement	3.1 [1164]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): +11.5%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	1.0 [1075]		LVP	Deron Williams (DAL): -9.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Seth Curry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.00	0.05	9	72%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.01	0.06	19	60%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salah Mejri	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	13	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	6	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	16	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Yogi Ferrell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	0.00	0.04	14	40%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.00	-0.00	12	79%	0.15	3	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.15	0.01	0.06	7	83%	0.11	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	15	53%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	9	59%	0.07	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.08	11	27%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	10	45%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.7	29.3	15.4	26.2	1.8	29.2	127.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.3%

DET +6.9%

DET +16.3%

DAL -8.5%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	15.6	14.3	14.8	94.8	101.0	107.7
season	16.2	15.0		104.4	105.0
opponent	15.1	14.7		106.4	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.5	19.8	14.6	13.8	15.6
DET	14.3	13.0	14.2	15.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Anderson	12	12	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-11	15	13.9	15.8	-1.88	16.6	14.0	2.62
Dwight Powell	1	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-5	3	26.0	15.5	10.55	12.0	14.3	-2.31
Dorian Finney-Smith	17	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-4	1	16.6	15.3	1.25	15.3	14.1	1.22
Andrew Bogut	35	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-4	1	15.2	15.8	-0.62	13.6	14.7	-1.12
Yogi Ferrell	39	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-3	-1	16.4	15.0	1.47	14.6	14.1	0.55
Devin Harris	34	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-3	-1	16.1	15.3	0.77	14.6	14.1	0.42
Salah Mejri	9	8	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.12	-11	4	-15	21.2	15.0	6.25	11.9	14.5	-2.63
Wesley Matthews	74	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-9	11	15.0	17.5	-2.45	14.2	14.6	-0.36
Harrison Barnes	74	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-9	11	15.0	17.5	-2.45	14.2	14.6	-0.36
Seth Curry	62	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-4	1	15.3	16.1	-0.77	14.1	14.6	-0.42
Dirk Nowitzki	61	62	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-3	-1	15.8	15.2	0.62	14.7	13.6	1.12
Deron Williams	62	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	2	-11	15.4	15.9	-0.45	13.9	15.0	-1.07

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	75	74	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	3	1	14.0	15.2	-1.21	15.3	16.4	-1.04
Jon Leuer	69	67	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.27	3	4	-1	15.1	12.2	2.92	15.7	15.3	0.36
Marcus Morris	73	72	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	5	-3	14.0	15.1	-1.06	15.0	17.2	-2.19
Reggie Jackson	55	56	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	3	1	14.2	14.4	-0.12	15.3	15.9	-0.62
Aron Baynes	54	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	-3	13	13.5	15.3	-1.74	15.8	15.3	0.56
Tobias Harris	49	48	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	6	-5	14.2	14.4	-0.21	15.1	16.0	-0.83
Stanley Johnson	32	33	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	0	7	13.7	14.6	-0.80	17.0	14.8	2.14
Andre Drummond	36	37	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	6	-5	15.6	13.5	2.01	15.8	15.4	0.45
Ish Smith	42	40	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	4	-1	14.4	14.2	0.12	15.9	15.3	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 115, DET 124	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1	96.3%
MEM 105, LAL 124	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
ATL 90, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.1%