NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	107		Excitement	2.7 [1221]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +10.4%
Orlando Magic	79		Comeback	1.0 [1247]		LVP	Danny Green (SAS): -8.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.00	0.03	13	77%	0.14	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	18	55%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	77%	0.07	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	11	59%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	86%	0.05	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	6	62%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	7	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Davis Bertans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	10	23%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	4	87%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01	2	57%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Stephen Zimmerman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damjan Rudez	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	55%	0.01	2	-0.02	3	33%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	9	48%	0.01	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	8	44%	0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	16	47%	0.01	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	11	44%	-0.01	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	11	36%	-0.01	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	27.0	15.5	28.2	1.5	26.6	125.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.7%

ORL -5.6%

SAS +12.4%

SAS +10.6%

SAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.9	14.3	14.8	116.3	84.9	107.7
season	15.4	14.6		110.1	103.0
opponent	14.9	14.8		109.8	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.4	14.7	19.0	18.7	16.9
ORL	12.3	15.9	14.6	14.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dewayne Dedmon	55	56	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.52	32	-4	36	17.4	16.1	1.26	15.2	12.9	2.32
Kawhi Leonard	53	52	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	12	4	17.2	16.5	0.69	14.6	13.9	0.78
LaMarcus Aldridge	53	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	17	-6	16.8	16.9	-0.02	14.3	14.2	0.09
Manu Ginobili	34	36	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.06	13	15	-2	13.9	18.6	-4.72	13.7	14.7	-0.97
Patty Mills	39	40	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.09	13	15	-2	13.7	19.2	-5.50	14.1	14.5	-0.38
Tony Parker	41	41	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.14	12	16	-4	19.2	15.0	4.26	14.9	13.8	1.01
David Lee	36	37	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.25	-4	32	-36	14.5	18.4	-3.88	13.0	15.1	-2.14
Danny Green	32	31	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	25	-22	19.2	15.6	3.52	14.5	14.2	0.24
Davis Bertans	29	28	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.35	15	13	2	18.4	16.1	2.27	14.8	14.1	0.76
Jonathon Simmons	39	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.26	12	16	-4	16.5	17.2	-0.69	13.9	14.6	-0.78
Kyle Anderson	26	26	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.31	12	16	-4	17.9	16.4	1.48	14.9	14.0	0.88
Dejounte Murray	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	25	-22	19.1	16.5	2.56	13.1	14.5	-1.39
Joel Anthony	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	26	-24	18.0	16.7	1.30	12.2	14.5	-2.34

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Zimmerman	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-26	24	13.0	14.4	-1.40	18.7	16.7	2.01
Damjan Rudez	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-26	24	13.0	14.4	-1.40	18.7	16.7	2.01
D.J. Augustin	37	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.38	-19	-9	-10	14.7	14.0	0.73	17.3	16.5	0.82
CJ Watson	24	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-19	10	15.0	14.1	0.90	14.9	17.6	-2.72
Bismack Biyombo	30	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	-15	2	14.7	14.1	0.56	15.8	17.3	-1.56
Nikola Vucevic	56	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-15	2	14.2	14.4	-0.10	17.2	16.4	0.82
Elfrid Payton	57	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-21	14	14.1	14.6	-0.52	18.0	15.2	2.75
Mario Hezonja	48	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.26	-19	-9	-10	14.4	14.1	0.30	16.3	17.4	-1.03
Jeff Green	65	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	-14	0	15.0	12.7	2.20	17.6	15.0	2.61
Evan Fournier	68	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.25	-21	-7	-14	14.0	15.1	-1.13	16.4	18.0	-1.59
Aaron Gordon	66	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.23	-21	-7	-14	13.7	15.8	-2.15	16.3	18.2	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 110, CHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
GSW 103, VAN 93	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.3%
TOR 108, ATL 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.3%