NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	110		Excitement	7.4 [380]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +17.2%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	10.0 [48]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): -18.1%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.17	-0.02	0.17	-0.02	16	47%	0.22	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Allen	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.02	10	79%	0.16	3	-0.09	8	50%	-0.09
Troy Daniels	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.03	6	81%	0.14	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Mike Conley	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	14	59%	0.16	5	-0.13	1	100%	0.01
JaMychal Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	9	70%	0.13	6	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Ennis III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.08	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Chandler Parsons	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.07	-0.01	6	75%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
James Harden	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	64%	0.24	7	-0.17	14	93%	0.09
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Dekker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.01	11	54%	0.05	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	11	38%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.14	0.01	11	46%	-0.09	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.4	33.6	15.4	28.7	1.0	38.4	147.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +84.2%

HOU -26.2%

MEM +13.5%

HOU -23.9%

MEM +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	HOU	NBA	MEM	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	13.4	14.8	108.9	105.0	107.7
season	16.1	13.7		106.4	113.2
opponent	14.9	14.9		108.1	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.4	17.9	13.5	15.6	15.3
HOU	12.8	12.9	15.3	12.6	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Daniels	44	45	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.31	15	-10	25	16.3	14.5	1.86	13.3	13.5	-0.21
James Ennis III	58	57	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-2	9	15.5	15.0	0.51	13.5	13.2	0.38
Mike Conley	83	82	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.26	10	-5	15	15.4	14.5	0.93	13.2	14.0	-0.76
Zach Randolph	51	50	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-6	17	15.2	15.4	-0.18	12.5	14.2	-1.72
Tony Allen	51	52	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	2	1	14.7	15.8	-1.05	13.9	12.9	1.01
Vince Carter	47	46	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	2	1	13.4	16.9	-3.48	13.7	13.1	0.62
Marc Gasol	72	70	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.27	-5	10	-15	15.2	15.3	-0.06	13.4	13.3	0.11
JaMychal Green	60	59	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.17	-8	13	-21	15.5	14.9	0.61	13.5	13.2	0.35
Chandler Parsons	39	39	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.01	-11	16	-27	16.1	14.7	1.36	13.3	13.4	-0.08

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Montrezl Harrell	49	48	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-9	13	13.7	13.0	0.70	16.0	14.6	1.48
Ryan Anderson	51	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-3	1	13.7	13.0	0.75	15.4	15.1	0.24
Eric Gordon	66	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.43	7	-12	19	12.8	14.4	-1.61	14.7	16.5	-1.81
James Harden	76	77	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-3	1	13.6	12.5	1.10	15.0	16.2	-1.18
Trevor Ariza	77	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-2	-1	13.3	13.6	-0.30	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Nene	46	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-2	-1	13.2	13.6	-0.42	14.8	15.7	-0.97
Corey Brewer	36	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.15	-8	3	-11	12.9	13.7	-0.77	14.9	15.4	-0.50
Sam Dekker	30	30	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	3	-11	13.4	13.4	0.08	15.5	15.2	0.33
Patrick Beverley	69	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	5	-15	13.6	13.0	0.55	16.2	13.3	2.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.77,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.3,0.25,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 123, SAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.26,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	91.5%
CHI 115, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.8,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.21,0.15,0.09,0	91.5%
DAL 95, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.77,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.3,0.17,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.05,0	90.9%