NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	7.2 [424]		MVP	Garrett Temple (SAC): +25.0%
Sacramento Kings	100		Comeback	22.8 [89]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): -13.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.04	-0.03	12	78%	0.27	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	15	56%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Boban Marjanovic	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.01	7	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,-0.01,0.11,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	15	61%	0.17	4	-0.10	1	0%	-0.09
Henry Ellenson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Darrun Hilliard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	5	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	17%	-0.06
Stanley Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	12	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	2	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Garrett Temple	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.08	0.18	0.01	8	69%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.04,0.24	0.24	0.10	0.17	0.04	14	69%	0.34	3	-0.10	7	57%	-0.09
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.01	7	75%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.03	11	61%	0.05	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	40%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.06
Ben McLemore	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	45%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	9	36%	-0.03	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	11	42%	0.03	7	-0.16	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.6	31.3	15.6	25.7	1.8	33.3	134.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +33.0%

SAC +5.2%

SAC +23.4%

DET -10.2%

DET -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	15.3	16.4	14.8	104.4	108.7	107.7
season	15.0	15.4		105.0	106.0
opponent	14.6	15.1		110.0	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.6	13.8	16.0	16.6	15.3
SAC	18.8	15.5	14.7	16.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	44	44	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.01	5	-11	16	14.1	16.4	-2.32	16.3	16.4	-0.12
Ish Smith	34	34	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-10	14	14.3	15.9	-1.59	15.8	16.7	-0.93
Boban Marjanovic	20	22	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-11	16	13.8	15.7	-1.87	15.1	16.8	-1.64
Henry Ellenson	14	15	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.08	-2	-4	2	16.2	15.1	1.14	14.8	16.7	-1.89
Darrun Hilliard	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-6	6	2.0	15.4	-13.40	22.0	16.3	5.68
Aron Baynes	10	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-7	8	17.9	14.9	2.97	15.7	16.5	-0.73
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	73	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-6	6	15.1	16.0	-0.92	16.4	16.1	0.38
Marcus Morris	57	59	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.20	-10	4	-14	15.4	14.9	0.50	16.9	15.5	1.35
Tobias Harris	76	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	3	-12	15.6	13.6	1.91	16.2	17.3	-1.12
Reggie Jackson	56	58	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.35	-10	4	-14	15.9	14.3	1.59	16.7	15.8	0.93
Andre Drummond	65	64	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	8	-22	15.8	13.9	1.90	17.0	15.0	1.93

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	47	47	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.40	10	-4	14	15.9	16.9	-0.95	14.8	15.7	-0.94
Rudy Gay	71	70	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.39	10	-4	14	16.9	14.7	2.22	15.5	14.5	0.97
DeMarcus Cousins	55	56	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.38	7	-1	8	17.3	15.1	2.22	15.4	15.1	0.27
Garrett Temple	57	57	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	7	-8	16.0	17.0	-1.05	15.6	14.7	0.88
Anthony Tolliver	70	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-6	18	16.0	17.5	-1.47	15.3	15.0	0.27
Kosta Koufos	44	41	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	1	4	15.3	17.4	-2.12	15.8	14.8	0.96
Ben McLemore	6	5	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	8	-10	14.0	16.5	-2.55	12.8	15.4	-2.60
Omri Casspi	34	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.00	-5	11	-16	17.3	15.8	1.45	14.6	15.6	-0.98
Arron Afflalo	23	21	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.02	-6	12	-18	17.4	16.0	1.41	13.7	15.7	-2.07
Darren Collison	53	52	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.17	0	6	-6	16.2	16.6	-0.36	15.7	14.7	0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.2,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.39,0.28,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 101, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.46,0.69,0.73,1	92.3%
DET 84, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.26,0.22,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.91,1	91.3%
HOU 94, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.2,0.13,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.73,1	91.1%