NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	117		Excitement	9.0 [158]		MVP	Channing Frye (CLE): +65.6%
Cleveland Cavaliers	121		Comeback	7.7 [271]		LVP	Iman Shumpert (CLE): -8.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.14	0.16	0.00	12	75%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.01	23	58%	0.24	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	9	64%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Cory Joseph	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Norman Powell	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Pascal Siakam	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	27	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.12

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.66	0.66	0.21	0.44	-0.00	10	95%	0.66	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.08	-0.01	8	88%	0.22	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.07	0.02	15	70%	0.33	5	-0.17	10	60%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.07	0.01	20	55%	0.18	5	-0.16	4	50%	-0.14
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McRae	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	16	46%	-0.02	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.02
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	29.0	15.5	25.1	1.0	43.6	140.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +50.4%

TOR -0.3%

CLE +7.9%

TOR -21.3%

CLE +13.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CLE	NBA	TOR	CLE	NBA
this game	14.3	14.7	14.8	117.0	122.2	107.7
season	15.2	14.9		110.0	113.5
opponent	14.7	14.9		109.6	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	15.0	13.3	14.2	14.3
CLE	13.6	16.3	14.9	14.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	51	50	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.22	8	-12	20	14.3	14.3	0.05	15.4	13.9	1.54
Lucas Nogueira	21	20	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-8	12	12.9	14.7	-1.75	15.0	14.6	0.43
Pascal Siakam	33	33	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-9	14	14.6	14.1	0.52	15.0	14.5	0.56
Kyle Lowry	82	82	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.40	8	-12	20	14.3	14.2	0.15	14.9	13.5	1.36
Cory Joseph	38	35	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	8	-20	14.8	14.0	0.76	15.3	14.3	1.06
Jonas Valanciunas	71	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	1	-6	14.5	13.7	0.80	14.3	15.6	-1.25
Norman Powell	61	62	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	1	-6	14.2	14.4	-0.16	14.1	15.6	-1.45
Patrick Patterson	69	67	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.27	-14	10	-24	14.7	13.5	1.22	14.7	14.5	0.23
DeMar DeRozan	74	73	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.65	-9	5	-14	13.7	15.9	-2.21	14.0	16.5	-2.50

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	53	56	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.43	11	-7	18	14.2	15.2	-1.01	14.4	14.1	0.27
Kevin Love	69	72	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.17	17	-13	30	14.7	14.5	0.18	14.7	13.2	1.49
Kyrie Irving	76	77	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.49	2	2	0	14.0	16.7	-2.66	13.6	16.5	-2.84
Tristan Thompson	64	64	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-5	14	13.8	16.1	-2.30	13.7	15.3	-1.59
LeBron James	79	78	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.41	1	3	-2	14.8	13.9	0.89	14.7	13.0	1.71
Channing Frye	40	39	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.31	-10	14	-24	15.5	14.1	1.42	14.6	14.1	0.58
Mike Dunleavy	37	38	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	4	-4	15.5	14.1	1.41	14.4	14.2	0.25
Jordan McRae	19	19	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.05	-4	8	-12	16.9	14.1	2.83	15.8	13.9	1.92
Iman Shumpert	58	57	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.03	-6	10	-16	14.6	14.8	-0.17	13.8	15.0	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.92,0.78,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.47,0.46,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.43,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 89, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.33,0.25,0.46,0.32,0.42,1	90.1%
DET 88, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.75,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.47,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.74,1	89.5%
SAC 98, TOR 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.17,0.25,0.17,0.22,0.42,1	89.4%