NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	7.6 [342]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +21.5%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	2.1 [697]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -18.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cristiano Felicio	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	0.00	4	73%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	0.10	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.02	11	70%	0.14	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.02,0,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	17	57%	0.24	4	-0.22	10	100%	0.09
Doug McDermott	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	55%	0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.06	0.02	8	56%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	16	47%	0.00	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Bobby Portis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	9	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.06	0.16	0.01	11	55%	0.22	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	8	59%	0.13	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.11	0.11	-0.01	0.11	-0.00	18	54%	0.23	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	9	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.13	-0.06	0.06	10	85%	0.10	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	16	47%	0.04	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.00	8	12%	-0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.6	3.4	28.6	17.5	27.7	2.8	40.2	140.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +19.5%

CHI -2.0%

MIA +19.0%

MIA +18.3%

CHI -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	14.9	105.4	111.6	105.1
season	14.8	15.5		103.7	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.9		103.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.3	16.1	17.7	13.4	15.2
MIA	14.5	15.9	15.9	15.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cristiano Felicio	29	29	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.07	9	-17	26	14.2	15.7	-1.48	16.2	15.0	1.20
Bobby Portis	37	38	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-10	12	15.7	14.9	0.84	16.3	14.8	1.55
Mike Dunleavy	38	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-6	4	15.3	15.2	0.11	14.3	16.2	-1.96
Derrick Rose	70	73	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.25	3	-11	14	15.3	15.0	0.24	15.0	16.7	-1.71
Doug McDermott	38	39	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-4	0	15.6	15.0	0.55	16.2	14.9	1.35
Justin Holiday	61	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	-1	-6	14.9	15.9	-0.99	15.9	14.6	1.28
Nikola Mirotic	53	55	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	3	-14	15.0	15.5	-0.48	14.6	16.5	-1.92
Jimmy Butler	76	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.22	-13	5	-18	15.1	15.8	-0.73	15.5	15.1	0.43
Pau Gasol	63	64	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.31	-17	9	-26	15.8	14.1	1.66	15.3	15.6	-0.30

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	68	66	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.33	17	-9	26	15.4	15.4	-0.05	15.7	14.0	1.68
Dwyane Wade	66	64	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-7	22	14.9	16.5	-1.59	15.6	14.3	1.28
Josh Richardson	62	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-1	10	16.4	13.6	2.76	14.9	16.0	-1.11
Hassan Whiteside	52	51	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	0	8	16.9	13.6	3.30	15.0	15.5	-0.41
Luol Deng	69	67	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.24	-1	9	-10	14.3	18.3	-3.94	15.1	15.6	-0.54
Amar'e Stoudemire	34	33	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	5	-2	13.6	16.4	-2.79	15.4	15.1	0.21
Udonis Haslem	6	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	9	-10	17.8	15.2	2.59	17.0	15.1	1.92
Justise Winslow	56	55	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	10	-12	16.2	14.3	1.91	14.7	16.0	-1.31
Goran Dragic	62	60	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.03	-8	16	-24	15.0	16.2	-1.27	15.2	15.3	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.52,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.66,0.76,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.66,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 91, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.96,0.98,1	91.9%
MIA 101, UTA 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.46,0.6,0.75,0.79,0.98,1,1	91.8%
DET 73, CLE 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	91.8%