NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	110		Excitement	11.7 [19]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +27.9%
Atlanta Hawks	108		Comeback	5.4 [164]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -21.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tristan Thompson	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.23,0.23	0.04	0.18	-0.01	4	64%	0.23	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.22
Iman Shumpert	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.06	-0.03	10	50%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Channing Frye	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.07	-0.02	6	43%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
J.R. Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	12	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08,-0.15,-0.21,-0.02	-0.10	0.07	-0.02	23	36%	-0.01	1	-0.01	10	80%	0.05
Timofey Mozgov	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	-0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	0.00	-0.11	0.01	11	58%	0.02	3	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03
LeBron James	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	0.01	-0.21	0.01	26	51%	-0.02	3	-0.18	5	80%	-0.07

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.15	0.00	8	87%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.00	23	52%	0.29	2	-0.16	8	100%	0.08
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.05	0.04	22	62%	0.24	3	-0.14	3	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	3	67%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	7	39%	-0.02	5	-0.15	4	75%	-0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.27,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.22	-0.22	-0.05	-0.15	0.02	17	36%	-0.22	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.4	3.5	33.7	16.8	27.5	3.3	37.3	2.7	22.2	171.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +4.7%

ATL -4.5%

CLE +32.7%

CLE +19.1%

ATL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ATL	NBA	CLE	ATL	NBA
this game	15.1	13.0	14.9	96.5	95.6	105.1
season	15.8	14.2		110.3	104.1
opponent	15.1	14.9		100.3	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CLE	15.6	13.7	14.3	17.5	13.5	15.1
ATL	14.4	14.0	12.4	11.8	11.5	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	87	84	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.53	9	-7	16	14.2	17.9	-3.67	12.9	13.1	-0.25
Matthew Dellavedova	40	39	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-9	20	15.2	15.0	0.23	13.0	12.9	0.11
Iman Shumpert	64	63	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.61	-1	3	-4	14.9	15.2	-0.26	12.7	13.2	-0.51
LeBron James	98	95	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.40	6	-4	10	14.6	17.6	-2.99	12.9	13.3	-0.38
Tristan Thompson	74	74	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	-4	10	14.8	15.4	-0.61	12.6	13.6	-0.93
Channing Frye	30	27	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	1	0	16.1	14.7	1.38	12.1	13.2	-1.11
Kyrie Irving	88	90	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.25	-15	17	-32	15.4	13.8	1.66	12.6	14.2	-1.58
Kevin Love	66	69	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.39	6	-4	10	15.6	14.3	1.28	14.1	11.1	2.98
Timofey Mozgov	24	25	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.13	-15	17	-32	15.9	14.8	1.04	13.4	12.8	0.57

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Korver	88	90	0.31	-0.81	1.11	-0.60	31	-33	64	12.5	14.5	-1.96	15.6	12.9	2.76
Paul Millsap	88	88	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.36	13	-15	28	12.9	13.1	-0.16	15.0	15.3	-0.33
Kent Bazemore	82	82	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.29	9	-11	20	13.0	12.7	0.34	14.9	15.5	-0.62
Jeff Teague	82	83	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.57	18	-20	38	12.8	13.5	-0.73	15.0	15.3	-0.33
Mike Scott	19	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.03	-3	1	-4	13.4	12.9	0.50	17.0	14.7	2.31
Al Horford	92	91	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.66	7	-9	16	12.6	14.6	-1.98	15.3	14.0	1.32
Kris Humphries	27	30	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.09	-20	18	-38	14.0	12.6	1.42	13.7	15.5	-1.88
Tim Hardaway Jr.	24	25	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	12	-26	13.3	12.9	0.48	17.3	14.4	2.85
Thabo Sefolosha	33	33	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	0.31	-31	29	-60	13.3	12.8	0.53	12.1	16.3	-4.21
Dennis Schroder	30	30	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.07	-20	18	-38	13.8	12.7	1.15	15.1	15.0	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.09,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.54,0.38,0.15,0.17,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 89, GSW 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.74,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.15,0	89.3%
WAS 114, MIL 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.47,0.16,0.23,0.73,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.06,0.01,0	86.9%
ORL 123, GSW 117	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.1,0.01,0	86.6%