NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	102		Excitement	7.6 [332]		MVP	Aaron Brooks (CHI): +33.2%
Chicago Bulls	100		Comeback	3.7 [496]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -35.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thabo Sefolosha	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12	0.02	0.10	0.00	0	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Kyle Korver	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.1	0.05	0.07	0.01	10	55%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Jeff Teague	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08	0.12	-0.02	0.02	18	59%	0.08	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Kris Humphries	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	4	90%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	11	54%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Mike Scott	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	87%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Schroder	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	10	64%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kent Bazemore	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	9	23%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.05
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.00	-0.02	8	12%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	12	42%	-0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.22,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.09	0.24	-0.01	10	80%	0.37	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	16	43%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.10	-0.00	8	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	18	47%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	8	31%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.36	-0.36	-0.07	-0.25	0.04	25	38%	-0.34	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	29.5	15.3	23.6	2.5	33.9	129.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +30.6%

ATL +29.3%

CHI -17.9%

ATL +6.2%

ATL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHI	NBA	ATL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.1	14.7	14.9	102.0	100.0	105.1
season	14.2	14.8		104.1	103.7
opponent	14.9	15.1		105.1	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.1	13.0	14.2	15.3	14.1
CHI	13.1	15.3	14.6	16.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	64	63	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.24	14	-12	26	13.4	15.4	-1.98	15.0	14.1	0.95
Al Horford	71	70	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-7	16	14.0	14.4	-0.46	14.9	14.1	0.78
Kyle Korver	60	60	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.03	16	-14	30	14.1	14.2	-0.09	15.5	13.5	1.97
Kent Bazemore	55	53	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	1	0	13.9	14.4	-0.59	14.4	15.0	-0.52
Paul Millsap	77	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	0	2	13.8	15.1	-1.31	14.3	15.8	-1.52
Thabo Sefolosha	51	52	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.42	-4	6	-10	13.4	14.9	-1.45	13.4	16.1	-2.66
Mike Scott	23	24	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	4	-6	15.1	13.8	1.31	15.8	14.3	1.52
Tim Hardaway Jr.	36	37	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.20	-8	10	-18	14.8	13.7	1.07	15.1	14.4	0.68
Kris Humphries	29	31	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.17	-7	9	-16	14.4	14.0	0.46	13.7	15.1	-1.41
Dennis Schroder	36	36	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.20	-12	14	-26	15.4	13.4	1.98	14.4	14.8	-0.37

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	34	34	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.14	8	-10	18	14.8	14.6	0.17	14.9	13.7	1.24
Doug McDermott	40	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-5	8	15.1	14.4	0.74	14.1	14.1	0.05
Bobby Portis	27	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-4	6	15.3	14.4	0.89	14.9	13.8	1.00
Aaron Brooks	45	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.35	7	-9	16	14.2	15.1	-0.87	15.3	13.1	2.23
Justin Holiday	24	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	4	-10	16.7	14.0	2.67	14.0	14.2	-0.16
Mike Dunleavy	44	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	5	-12	14.4	14.9	-0.52	13.3	14.7	-1.43
Derrick Rose	72	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.37	-1	-1	0	14.7	14.7	-0.10	14.0	14.4	-0.37
Pau Gasol	73	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	2	-6	14.4	15.3	-0.89	13.8	14.9	-1.00
Jimmy Butler	75	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	0	-2	14.3	15.9	-1.60	14.0	14.6	-0.59
Taj Gibson	66	66	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.30	-10	8	-18	14.6	14.8	-0.17	13.7	14.9	-1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.3,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.33,0.29,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.21,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 109, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.25,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.28,0.32,0.26,0	92.9%
PHI 100, DEN 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.16,0	92.6%
ATL 105, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.25,0.21,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.21,0.14,0.04,0	91.2%