NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	5.5 [730]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +19.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	110		Comeback	1.4 [1022]		LVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): -18.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.20	-0.03	0.08	22	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.11	0.01	0.05	11	73%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	12	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Joffrey Lauvergne	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kostas Papanikolaou	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.01	12	33%	-0.04	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.06	0.01	19	71%	0.25	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	14	71%	0.19	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.02	7	65%	0.13	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	14	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	27.7	15.4	23.8	2.0	37.0	129.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +33.2%

POR +2.7%

POR +5.9%

POR +6.8%

POR +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.4	15.2	14.9	105.1	113.4	105.1
season	14.9	15.0		104.3	107.1
opponent	14.6	14.9		106.7	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	15.4	15.1	12.2	14.4
POR	15.0	14.6	14.9	16.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	26	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.29	8	-15	23	12.2	15.2	-3.03	16.2	14.8	1.34
Nikola Jokic	36	36	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-7	7	14.2	14.5	-0.20	15.7	14.9	0.80
Kostas Papanikolaou	25	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.00	-6	-1	-5	15.0	14.2	0.78	15.1	15.2	-0.06
Darrell Arthur	26	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-2	-3	16.7	13.5	3.20	12.8	16.0	-3.22
Randy Foye	29	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	2	-11	14.2	14.5	-0.29	15.0	15.2	-0.24
Kenneth Faried	60	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-5	3	14.1	14.8	-0.67	15.4	14.7	0.70
Gary Harris	85	84	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.32	1	-8	9	14.0	17.0	-3.02	15.3	14.2	1.08
Will Barton	73	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-6	5	14.2	15.0	-0.78	15.2	15.1	0.06
Joffrey Lauvergne	47	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	4	-15	15.0	13.8	1.28	15.1	15.2	-0.11
Jameer Nelson	83	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	3	-13	14.7	12.7	2.02	15.1	15.3	-0.18

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al-Farouq Aminu	70	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	2	3	14.5	16.9	-2.39	13.9	15.7	-1.83
Allen Crabbe	66	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	2	3	14.9	15.7	-0.80	14.4	14.4	0.00
Mason Plumlee	57	60	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	-1	9	14.6	15.9	-1.29	14.1	14.8	-0.72
CJ McCollum	78	79	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.18	5	2	3	14.4	18.2	-3.79	14.1	15.6	-1.49
Maurice Harkless	52	53	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	10	-13	15.0	15.3	-0.27	13.8	15.0	-1.19
Noah Vonleh	32	33	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	-1	9	15.8	14.8	0.97	14.9	14.1	0.76
Tim Frazier	21	21	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	3	1	17.8	14.4	3.31	14.7	14.3	0.37
Gerald Henderson	37	37	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	3	1	15.6	14.9	0.65	15.2	13.9	1.26
Ed Davis	28	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	8	-9	16.4	14.7	1.68	16.7	13.5	3.21
Meyers Leonard	44	43	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	7	-7	16.0	14.5	1.45	14.1	14.6	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.72,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.99,0.94,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.93,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 87, DAL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.89,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,1,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	94.0%
MIN 83, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.96,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
CHI 98, NOP 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.7%